Charlotte Hornets at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Mark WilliamsPoints26
- Nick Smith Jr.Assists7
- Mark WilliamsRebounds16
Mavericks- Kyrie IrvingPoints25
- Naji MarshallAssists6
- Moses BrownRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game96–103
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter96–103
- Q40.1Dante Exum defensive rebound96–103
- Q43.0Miles Bridges misses 23-foot three point jumper96–103
- Q45.1Hornets offensive team rebound96–103
- Q45.1Klay Thompson blocks KJ Simpson 's 23-foot three point step back jumpshot96–103
- Q49.0KJ Simpson offensive rebound96–103
- Q410.1Miles Bridges misses 22-foot three point shot96–103
- Q413.1Damion Baugh enters the game for Mark Williams96–103
- Q413.1Dante Exum enters the game for Moses Brown96–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:43Miles Bridges makes 22-foot three point jumper (Mark Williams assists)CHA 83 – 83 DAL · CHA 23% → 37% +14CHA 23% → 37%+14 pts
- Q46:19Klay Thompson makes 9-foot driving floating jump shot (Dwight Powell assists)CHA 83 – 85 DAL · DAL 62% → 73% +10DAL 62% → 73%+10 pts
- Q46:06Mark Williams makes 10-foot two point shot (Nick Smith Jr. assists)CHA 85 – 85 DAL · CHA 27% → 38% +10CHA 27% → 38%+10 pts
- Q45:51Kyrie Irving makes 13-foot pullup jump shotCHA 85 – 87 DAL · DAL 62% → 73% +11DAL 62% → 73%+11 pts
- Q41:48Klay Thompson makes 22-foot three point jumperCHA 91 – 97 DAL · DAL 84% → 96% +13DAL 84% → 96%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mavericks 81%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- DAL -10.5
- ML CHA +400 / DAL -550
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -11.5
- DAL 86%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.3 pts
- DAL: Elo 86.2%, market 80.9%
- Fair odds
- DAL -423
- CHA +423 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 104.5 – 115.0 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 219.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1274 | 1561 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −35 | −39 | CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups · DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | −24 | CHA crossed 2 time zones and DAL crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DAL +319 Elo | DAL 86.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 78.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 79.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 80.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30105.4 | Points scored | 115.111th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.9 | Points allowed | 113.416th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−7.5 | Margin | +1.712th of 30 |
| 29th of 30105.1 | Offense rating | 113.79th of 30 |
| 16th of 30112.6 | Defense rating | 112.114th of 30 |
| 21st of 3099.7 | Pace | 100.918th of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 28th of 305–23 | Road vs home | 18–1112th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
−35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
−39 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHA |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 28–29 | 32–27 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 0–7 | 14–14 |
| Underdog | 28–22 | 18–13 |
| Overs–unders | 22–35 | 29–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHA 1–2 DAL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.