New York Knicks at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints31
- Mikal BridgesAssists8
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds16
Heat- Bam AdebayoPoints30
- Tyler HerroAssists7
- Kel'el WareRebounds8
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game116–112
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime116–112
- OT6.0Karl-Anthony Towns defensive rebound116–112
- OT6.0Bam Adebayo misses 24-foot three point jumper116–112
- OT17.1OG Anunoby makes 1-foot dunk (Mikal Bridges assists)116–112
- OT23.0Knicks Full timeout114–112
- OT27.1Karl-Anthony Towns enters the game for Mitchell Robinson114–112
- OT27.1Jalen Brunson enters the game for Miles McBride114–112
- OT27.1Haywood Highsmith enters the game for Duncan Robinson114–112
- OT27.1Knicks Full timeout114–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:21Tyler Herro makes 26-foot three pointerNY 101 – 103 MIA · MIA 37% → 64% +28MIA 37% → 64%+28 pts
- Q41:17Tyler Herro makes 18-foot step back jumpshotNY 101 – 105 MIA · MIA 71% → 88% +17MIA 71% → 88%+17 pts
- Q451.1OG Anunoby makes tip shotNY 103 – 105 MIA · NY 7% → 24% +17NY 7% → 24%+17 pts
- Q426.1Jalen Brunson makes two point shot (Josh Hart assists)NY 105 – 105 MIA · NY 15% → 52% +37NY 15% → 52%+37 pts
- OT2:27Jalen Brunson makes 26-foot three pointerNY 110 – 109 MIA · NY 36% → 63% +27NY 36% → 63%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- NY -6.5
- ML NY -240 / MIA +200
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -2.5
- NY 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.6 pts
- NY: Elo 60.3%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- NY -212
- MIA +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 113.0 – 106.5 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 219.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1573 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +6 | −22 | NY: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIA: Missing Andrew Wiggins −4 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | NY crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | NY +73 Elo | NY 60.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 58.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 59.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30117.7 | Points scored | 110.325th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.9 | Points allowed | 110.87th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+4.7 | Margin | −0.517th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30117.9 | Offense rating | 111.416th of 30 |
| 20th of 30113.1 | Defense rating | 111.913th of 30 |
| 25th of 3099.1 | Pace | 97.530th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–616th of 30 |
| 4th of 3018–10 | Road vs home | 14–1116th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
−22 Elo- Andrew Wiggins right ankle sprain−4 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NY |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 28–31 | 23–35 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 25–25 | 14–18 |
| Underdog | 3–6 | 9–17 |
| Overs–unders | 34–25 | 32–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 3–1 MIA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.