Indiana Pacers at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints36
- Andrew NembhardAssists11
- Pascal SiakamRebounds6
Heat- Tyler HerroPoints29
- Davion MitchellAssists8
- Kel'el WareRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–125
- Q43.1Haywood Highsmith defensive rebound120–125
- Q43.1Aaron Nesmith misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot120–125
- Q46.1Aaron Nesmith enters the game for Thomas Bryant120–125
- Q46.1Pacers Full timeout120–125
- Q46.1Tyler Herro makes free throw 2 of 2120–125
- Q46.1Thomas Bryant enters the game for Aaron Nesmith120–124
- Q46.1Haywood Highsmith enters the game for Duncan Robinson120–124
- Q46.1Tyler Herro makes free throw 1 of 2120–124
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:55Pascal Siakam makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)IND 115 – 115 MIA · IND 28% → 52% +24IND 28% → 52%+24 pts
- Q42:30Duncan Robinson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Davion Mitchell assists)IND 115 – 118 MIA · MIA 48% → 74% +26MIA 48% → 74%+26 pts
- Q42:10Pascal Siakam makes 25-foot three point jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)IND 118 – 118 MIA · IND 24% → 52% +27IND 24% → 52%+27 pts
- Q41:04Tyrese Haliburton makes 16-foot pullup jump shot (Myles Turner assists)IND 120 – 120 MIA · IND 25% → 51% +26IND 25% → 51%+26 pts
- Q443.1Davion Mitchell makes 24-foot three point jumper (Tyler Herro assists)IND 120 – 123 MIA · MIA 49% → 90% +40MIA 49% → 90%+40 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pacers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- IND -2.5
- ML IND -150 / MIA +125
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -4
- IND 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.6 pts
- IND: Elo 66.0%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- IND -135
- MIA +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 113.0 – 110.5 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1576 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +19 | −26 | IND: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIA: Missing Andrew Wiggins −5 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +115 Elo | IND 66.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 58.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 59.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | IND 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30116.4 | Points scored | 110.025th of 30 |
| 20th of 30115.2 | Points allowed | 110.67th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+1.1 | Margin | −0.617th of 30 |
| 8th of 30114.1 | Offense rating | 111.017th of 30 |
| 19th of 30113.0 | Defense rating | 111.613th of 30 |
| 10th of 30101.3 | Pace | 97.629th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 10th of 3015–14 | Road vs home | 13–1116th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
+19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
−26 Elo- Andrew Wiggins right ankle sprain−5 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 28–29 | 22–35 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 16–18 | 14–18 |
| Underdog | 12–11 | 8–17 |
| Overs–unders | 32–25 | 31–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 4–2 MIA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.