Toronto Raptors at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Immanuel QuickleyPoints18
- Immanuel QuickleyAssists6
- Ja'Kobe WalterRebounds8
Pacers- Tyrese HaliburtonPoints33
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists11
- Myles TurnerRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game91–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter91–111
- Q43.0Ben Sheppard defensive rebound91–111
- Q43.0Gradey Dick misses 30-foot three point jumper91–111
- Q44.1Ja'Kobe Walter offensive rebound91–111
- Q46.1Gradey Dick misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot91–111
- Q49.0RayJ Dennis bad pass (Gradey Dick steals)91–111
- Q417.1Ochai Agbaji bad pass (Jarace Walker steals)91–111
- Q419.1shot clock turnover91–111
- Q442.2Thomas Bryant defensive rebound91–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:18Tyrese Haliburton makes 30-foot three point step back jumpshotTOR 9 – 9 IND · IND 77% → 81% +5IND 77% → 81%+5 pts
- Q26:48Gradey Dick makes 29-foot three point jumper (RJ Barrett assists)TOR 33 – 34 IND · TOR 16% → 21% +5TOR 16% → 21%+5 pts
- Q24:29Tyrese Haliburton makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshotTOR 35 – 41 IND · IND 82% → 87% +5IND 82% → 87%+5 pts
- Q24:17Gradey Dick makes 26-foot three point jumper (RJ Barrett assists)TOR 38 – 41 IND · TOR 13% → 18% +5TOR 13% → 18%+5 pts
- Q33:58Thomas Bryant makes 27-foot three pointer (Tyrese Haliburton assists)TOR 62 – 72 IND · IND 88% → 92% +5IND 88% → 92%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pacers 82%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- IND -11.5
- ML TOR +425 / IND -650
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -8.5
- IND 80%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- IND: Elo 80.2%, market 82.0%
- Fair odds
- IND -455
- TOR +455 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 111.0 – 122.5 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1410 | 1570 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | TOR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −8 | −1 | TOR: Missing Scottie Barnes −25, Brandon Ingram −20 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · IND: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +243 Elo | IND 80.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 80.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 80.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | IND 82.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30110.7 | Points scored | 116.49th of 30 |
| 24th of 30116.3 | Points allowed | 115.620th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−5.7 | Margin | +0.816th of 30 |
| 25th of 30108.8 | Offense rating | 114.27th of 30 |
| 24th of 30114.3 | Defense rating | 113.423rd of 30 |
| 14th of 30101.0 | Pace | 101.311th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 27th of 305–21 | Road vs home | 16–911th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
−8 Elo- Scottie Barnes left hip injury−25 Elo
- Brandon Ingram left ankle sprain−20 Elo
Pacers
−1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 35–23 | 27–29 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 15–18 |
| Underdog | 32–20 | 12–11 |
| Overs–unders | 30–28 | 32–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 4–2 IND in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.