Miami Heat at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Bam AdebayoPoints34
- Davion MitchellAssists7
- Bam AdebayoRebounds12
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints26
- Darius GarlandAssists10
- Evan MobleyRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–112
- Q42.1Donovan Mitchell defensive rebound107–112
- Q45.1Duncan Robinson misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot107–112
- Q412.1Darius Garland makes free throw 2 of 2107–112
- Q412.1Duncan Robinson enters the game for Davion Mitchell107–111
- Q412.1Alec Burks enters the game for Haywood Highsmith107–111
- Q412.1Darius Garland makes free throw 1 of 2107–111
- Q412.1Davion Mitchell personal foul107–110
- Q417.1Davion Mitchell enters the game for Duncan Robinson107–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:37Max Strus makes 25-foot three point jumper (Darius Garland assists)MIA 102 – 100 CLE · CLE 31% → 50% +19CLE 31% → 50%+19 pts
- Q44:13Bam Adebayo makes 27-foot three point jumper (Kyle Anderson assists)MIA 105 – 100 CLE · MIA 51% → 71% +20MIA 51% → 71%+20 pts
- Q43:58Max Strus makes 26-foot three point jumper (Darius Garland assists)MIA 105 – 103 CLE · CLE 28% → 48% +20CLE 28% → 48%+20 pts
- Q43:25Donovan Mitchell makes 24-foot three point jumper (Darius Garland assists)MIA 105 – 106 CLE · CLE 46% → 69% +23CLE 46% → 69%+23 pts
- Q41:20De'Andre Hunter makes 8-foot driving floating jump shot (Darius Garland assists)MIA 107 – 110 CLE · CLE 69% → 87% +18CLE 69% → 87%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 86%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -13.5
- ML MIA +600 / CLE -1000
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 84%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -11.5
- CLE 86%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- CLE: Elo 86.3%, market 86.4%
- Fair odds
- CLE -636
- MIA +636 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 103.5 – 117.0 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 220.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1707 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | CLE on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −59 | +53 | MIA: Missing Tyler Herro −27 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | CLE crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CLE +320 Elo | CLE 86.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 84.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 84.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 86.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30110.3 | Points scored | 123.31st of 30 |
| 7th of 30110.5 | Points allowed | 111.711th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +11.62nd of 30 |
| 17th of 30111.4 | Offense rating | 120.81st of 30 |
| 13th of 30111.6 | Defense rating | 109.47th of 30 |
| 30th of 3097.4 | Pace | 101.96th of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 10–01st of 30 |
| 18th of 3013–19 | Road vs home | 28–41st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
−59 Elo- Tyler Herro not with team−27 Elo
Cavaliers
+53 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 25–35 | 41–20 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 15–18 | 37–18 |
| Underdog | 10–17 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders | 33–27 | 41–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 4–2 CLE in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.