Cleveland Cavaliers at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints28
- Darius GarlandAssists7
- Jarrett AllenRebounds17
Bulls- Coby WhitePoints25
- Coby WhiteAssists7
- Zach CollinsRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game139–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter139–117
- Q49.1shot clock turnover139–117
- Q433.1Dalen Terry makes two point shot (Jahmir Young assists)139–117
- Q436.1Jahmir Young defensive rebound139–115
- Q439.1Jaylon Tyson misses 25-foot three point jumper139–115
- Q449.1Tristan Thompson offensive rebound139–115
- Q452.1Isaac Okoro misses 23-foot three point jumper139–115
- Q41:12Tristan Thompson defensive rebound139–115
- Q41:15E.J. Liddell misses 26-foot three point jumper139–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q411:46Sam Merrill makes 24-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)CLE 99 – 94 CHI · CLE 77% → 86% +8CLE 77% → 86%+8 pts
- Q411:30Talen Horton-Tucker makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tre Jones assists)CLE 99 – 97 CHI · CHI 14% → 23% +8CHI 14% → 23%+8 pts
- Q47:04Zach Collins makes two point shot (Tre Jones assists)CLE 107 – 107 CHI · CHI 24% → 34% +9CHI 24% → 34%+9 pts
- Q46:46Jarrett Allen makes alley oop dunk shot (Darius Garland assists)CLE 109 – 107 CHI · CLE 66% → 75% +9CLE 66% → 75%+9 pts
- Q45:54Javonte Green makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jarrett Allen assists)CLE 114 – 107 CHI · CLE 84% → 92% +9CLE 84% → 92%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 86%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -13.5
- ML CLE -900 / CHI +600
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 85%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -11
- CLE 85%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- CLE: Elo 85.3%, market 86.3%
- Fair odds
- CLE -630
- CHI +630 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 128.0 – 114.5 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 242.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1703 | 1409 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +15 | −32 | CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHI: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +305 Elo | CLE 85.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 85.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 85.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 86.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30123.1 | Points scored | 116.510th of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.6 | Points allowed | 120.429th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+11.5 | Margin | −4.023rd of 30 |
| 1st of 30120.7 | Offense rating | 111.019th of 30 |
| 7th of 30109.5 | Defense rating | 114.826th of 30 |
| 6th of 30101.7 | Pace | 104.43rd of 30 |
| 1st of 3010–0 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 1st of 3022–6 | Road vs home | 11–2125th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
−32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 40–20 | 29–31 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 36–18 | 6–8 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 23–23 |
| Overs–unders | 40–20 | 30–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 5–1 CHI in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.