Chicago Bulls at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Coby WhitePoints26
- Josh GiddeyAssists7
- Josh GiddeyRebounds9
Pacers- Aaron NesmithPoints27
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists12
- Pascal SiakamRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–127
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–127
- Q423.0shot clock turnover112–127
- Q445.1Ben Sheppard defensive rebound112–127
- Q448.1Matas Buzelis misses 25-foot three point jumper112–127
- Q41:02James Johnson enters the game for Andrew Nembhard112–127
- Q41:02Talen Horton-Tucker enters the game for Tre Jones112–127
- Q41:02Julian Phillips enters the game for Zach Collins112–127
- Q41:02Jevon Carter enters the game for Josh Giddey112–127
- Q41:02Tony Bradley enters the game for Pascal Siakam112–127
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q21:44Myles Turner makes 25-foot three point jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)CHI 63 – 61 IND · IND 62% → 70% +8IND 62% → 70%+8 pts
- Q21:11Ben Sheppard makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)CHI 65 – 64 IND · IND 65% → 72% +8IND 65% → 72%+8 pts
- Q39:49Matas Buzelis makes 22-foot three point jumper (Tre Jones assists)CHI 72 – 66 IND · CHI 35% → 44% +9CHI 35% → 44%+9 pts
- Q358.1Jalen Smith makes 24-foot three point jumper (Josh Giddey assists)CHI 92 – 95 IND · CHI 14% → 22% +8CHI 14% → 22%+8 pts
- Q410:31Thomas Bryant makes 25-foot three point jumper (T.J. McConnell assists)CHI 96 – 103 IND · IND 81% → 89% +8IND 81% → 89%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pacers 82%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- IND -11.5
- ML CHI +425 / IND -650
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 79%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -8
- IND 79%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- IND: Elo 78.9%, market 82.0%
- Fair odds
- IND -455
- CHI +455 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 114.0 – 125.5 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 239.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1413 | 1565 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −10 | +19 | CHI: Missing Lonzo Ball −7 · IND: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | CHI crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | IND +229 Elo | IND 78.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 78.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 78.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | IND 82.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30116.5 | Points scored | 116.410th of 30 |
| 29th of 30120.3 | Points allowed | 115.421st of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−3.8 | Margin | +1.016th of 30 |
| 18th of 30110.9 | Offense rating | 114.37th of 30 |
| 26th of 30114.5 | Defense rating | 113.323rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30104.5 | Pace | 101.112th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 14th of 3013–15 | Road vs home | 17–910th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
−10 Elo- Lonzo Ball right wrist sprain−7 Elo
Pacers
+19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 29–30 | 28–30 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–8 | 16–19 |
| Underdog | 23–22 | 12–11 |
| Overs–unders | 30–30 | 33–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 3–3 IND in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.