Toronto Raptors at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Scottie BarnesPoints24
- RJ BarrettAssists8
- Gradey DickRebounds9
Bulls- Coby WhitePoints24
- Josh GiddeyAssists12
- Zach CollinsRebounds13
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game115–125
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime115–125
- OT3.1shot clock turnover115–125
- OT25.1Coby White defensive rebound115–125
- OT28.0Jamal Shead misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot115–125
- OT31.1Raptors Full timeout115–125
- OT31.1Ayo Dosunmu makes free throw 2 of 2115–125
- OT31.1Bulls offensive team rebound115–124
- OT31.1Ayo Dosunmu misses free throw 1 of 2115–124
- OT31.1Scottie Barnes personal foul115–124
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:33Zach Collins makes 1-foot layup (Josh Giddey assists)TOR 105 – 103 CHI · CHI 13% → 28% +16CHI 13% → 28%+16 pts
- Q41:09Gradey Dick makes 17-foot two point shotTOR 107 – 103 CHI · TOR 75% → 91% +16TOR 75% → 91%+16 pts
- Q44.0Coby White makes free throw 1 of 1TOR 110 – 110 CHI · CHI 8% → 50% +42CHI 8% → 50%+42 pts
- OT3:27Lonzo Ball makes 25-foot three point jumper (Zach Collins assists)TOR 110 – 113 CHI · CHI 51% → 72% +22CHI 51% → 72%+22 pts
- OT2:58Scottie Barnes makes driving dunk (Gradey Dick assists)TOR 112 – 113 CHI · TOR 26% → 41% +15TOR 26% → 41%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bulls 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- CHI -1.5
- ML TOR +100 / CHI -120
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- CHI 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- CHI: Elo 49.4%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- CHI -109
- TOR +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 116.0 – 117.5 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1405 | 1403 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +11 | −27 | TOR: Missing Brandon Ingram −23 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · CHI: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +4 Elo | TOR 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 50.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHI 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30110.4 | Points scored | 116.49th of 30 |
| 24th of 30116.3 | Points allowed | 120.429th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−5.9 | Margin | −4.023rd of 30 |
| 26th of 30108.4 | Offense rating | 110.918th of 30 |
| 24th of 30114.2 | Defense rating | 114.726th of 30 |
| 14th of 30101.0 | Pace | 104.63rd of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 27th of 305–22 | Road vs home | 10–2126th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
+11 Elo- Brandon Ingram left ankle sprain−23 Elo
Bulls
−27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 35–24 | 28–30 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 5–8 |
| Underdog | 32–21 | 23–22 |
| Overs–unders | 30–29 | 29–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 2–4 CHI in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.