LA Clippers at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- James HardenPoints30
- Ben SimmonsAssists8
- Ivica ZubacRebounds10
Bulls- Zach CollinsPoints21
- Josh GiddeyAssists12
- Zach CollinsRebounds17
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–117
- Q41.1Coby White makes 32-foot three pointer122–117
- Q46.0Bulls Full timeout122–114
- Q46.0James Harden makes free throw 2 of 2122–114
- Q46.0James Harden makes free throw 1 of 2121–114
- Q46.0Coby White personal take foul120–114
- Q47.0Coby White personal take foul120–114
- Q48.0Amir Coffey defensive rebound120–114
- Q411.1Kevin Huerter misses 26-foot three point jumper120–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:14Tre Jones makes 23-foot three point jumper (Lonzo Ball assists)LAC 110 – 108 CHI · CHI 15% → 29% +14CHI 15% → 29%+14 pts
- Q44:23Amir Coffey makes 15-foot pullup jump shotLAC 112 – 108 CHI · LAC 71% → 82% +10LAC 71% → 82%+10 pts
- Q44:15Kevin Huerter makes 5-foot layup (Josh Giddey assists)LAC 112 – 110 CHI · CHI 18% → 29% +11CHI 18% → 29%+11 pts
- Q43:26Bogdan Bogdanovic makes 25-foot three pointerLAC 115 – 110 CHI · LAC 72% → 88% +16LAC 72% → 88%+16 pts
- Q42:15James Harden makes 10-foot driving floating jump shot (Amir Coffey assists)LAC 117 – 112 CHI · LAC 81% → 91% +10LAC 81% → 91%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -9.5
- ML LAC -400 / CHI +300
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -4
- LAC 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.4 pts
- LAC: Elo 64.8%, market 76.2%
- Fair odds
- LAC -320
- CHI +320 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 119.5 – 110.0 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1407 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +11 | −29 | LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHI: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +106 Elo | LAC 64.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 72.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 71.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 76.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30110.7 | Points scored | 116.49th of 30 |
| 4th of 30108.5 | Points allowed | 120.429th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+2.2 | Margin | −4.022nd of 30 |
| 20th of 30110.5 | Offense rating | 110.818th of 30 |
| 4th of 30108.3 | Defense rating | 114.626th of 30 |
| 21st of 3099.7 | Pace | 104.73rd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–721st of 30 |
| 17th of 3012–16 | Road vs home | 10–2025th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
+11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
−29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 32–25 | 27–30 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 18–11 | 5–8 |
| Underdog | 14–14 | 22–22 |
| Overs–unders | 25–32 | 28–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 2–1 CHI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.