Minnesota Timberwolves at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Jaden McDanielsPoints29
- Julius RandleAssists9
- Jaden McDanielsRebounds10
Hornets- LaMelo BallPoints28
- LaMelo BallAssists6
- LaMelo BallRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game125–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter125–110
- Q40.0Damion Baugh offensive rebound125–110
- Q40.0Seth Curry misses 23-foot three point jumper125–110
- Q45.0shot clock turnover125–110
- Q424.0Jaden McDaniels defensive rebound125–110
- Q430.2Seth Curry misses 25-foot three point jumper125–110
- Q443.0Donte DiVincenzo makes free throw 2 of 2125–110
- Q443.0Donte DiVincenzo makes free throw 1 of 2124–110
- Q443.0Damion Baugh enters the game for LaMelo Ball123–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:47LaMelo Ball makes 28-foot three point shot (Miles Bridges assists)MIN 2 – 8 CHA · CHA 30% → 36% +6CHA 30% → 36%+6 pts
- Q19:58Jaden McDaniels makes 22-foot three point jumper (Naz Reid assists)MIN 7 – 8 CHA · MIN 68% → 73% +5MIN 68% → 73%+5 pts
- Q17:56Naz Reid makes 29-foot three point jumper (Jaden McDaniels assists)MIN 12 – 13 CHA · MIN 67% → 73% +6MIN 67% → 73%+6 pts
- Q15:40Julius Randle makes 23-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)MIN 19 – 17 CHA · MIN 72% → 78% +5MIN 72% → 78%+5 pts
- Q37:09Jaden McDaniels makes 23-foot three pointer (Julius Randle assists)MIN 79 – 70 CHA · MIN 82% → 88% +6MIN 82% → 88%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -9.5
- ML MIN -380 / CHA +290
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -9.5
- MIN 82%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.2 pts
- MIN: Elo 81.8%, market 75.5%
- Fair odds
- MIN -309
- CHA +309 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 118.0 – 108.5 CHA
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1624 | 1257 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | MIN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +7 | +26 | MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MIN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIN +261 Elo | MIN 81.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 73.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 74.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 75.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30112.3 | Points scored | 105.128th of 30 |
| 5th of 30109.1 | Points allowed | 112.913th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+3.2 | Margin | −7.828th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.6 | Offense rating | 104.729th of 30 |
| 6th of 30109.4 | Defense rating | 112.415th of 30 |
| 24th of 3099.1 | Pace | 99.820th of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 1–929th of 30 |
| 10th of 3017–15 | Road vs home | 9–2228th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
+7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
+26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 28–35 | 29–31 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 17–28 | 0–8 |
| Underdog | 11–7 | 29–23 |
| Overs–unders | 35–28 | 22–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 2–1 CHA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.