Golden State Warriors at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Buddy HieldPoints22
- Stephen CurryAssists10
- Draymond GreenRebounds12
Hornets- Miles BridgesPoints35
- LaMelo BallAssists7
- Mark WilliamsRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–101
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–101
- Q41.1Gui Santos defensive rebound119–101
- Q45.0Tidjane Salaun misses free throw 2 of 2119–101
- Q45.0Quinten Post enters the game for Buddy Hield119–101
- Q45.0Hornets offensive team rebound119–101
- Q45.0Tidjane Salaun misses free throw 1 of 2119–101
- Q45.0Trayce Jackson-Davis shooting foul119–101
- Q415.1Kevin Knox II makes driving layup119–101
- Q438.1Damion Baugh makes two point shot117–101
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q211:18Draymond Green makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jimmy Butler III assists)GS 31 – 26 CHA · GS 84% → 88% +4GS 84% → 88%+4 pts
- Q34:21Stephen Curry makes 12-foot jumperGS 68 – 63 CHA · GS 80% → 85% +5GS 80% → 85%+5 pts
- Q33:05LaMelo Ball makes 27-foot three pointer (Damion Baugh assists)GS 75 – 71 CHA · CHA 11% → 18% +6CHA 11% → 18%+6 pts
- Q31:13Buddy Hield makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jimmy Butler III assists)GS 80 – 72 CHA · GS 85% → 91% +6GS 85% → 91%+6 pts
- Q352.1Buddy Hield makes 25-foot three point jumper (Draymond Green assists)GS 83 – 72 CHA · GS 91% → 95% +4GS 91% → 95%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 84%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- GS -12.5
- ML GS -725 / CHA +500
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 85%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -10.5
- GS 84%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- GS: Elo 84.1%, market 84.1%
- Fair odds
- GS -527
- CHA +527 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 121.0 – 108.5 CHA
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1260 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +46 | −5 | GS: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +290 Elo | GS 84.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 85.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 85.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 84.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30113.0 | Points scored | 105.228th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.4 | Points allowed | 112.813th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+1.7 | Margin | −7.628th of 30 |
| 15th of 30111.7 | Offense rating | 104.829th of 30 |
| 9th of 30110.1 | Defense rating | 112.415th of 30 |
| 17th of 30100.9 | Pace | 99.720th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 1–929th of 30 |
| 12th of 3015–15 | Road vs home | 9–2128th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
+46 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
−5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GS |  CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 32–28 | 29–30 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 20–18 | 0–8 |
| Underdog | 12–10 | 29–22 |
| Overs–unders | 31–29 | 22–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 3–0 CHA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.