Brooklyn Nets at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Cam ThomasPoints24
- Cam ThomasAssists6
- Trendon WatfordRebounds10
Spurs- Devin VassellPoints37
- De'Aaron FoxAssists7
- Bismack BiyomboRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–127
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–127
- Q40.0Nets offensive team rebound113–127
- Q40.0Dariq Whitehead misses 34-foot three point pullup jump shot113–127
- Q42.0shot clock turnover113–127
- Q426.0Sandro Mamukelashvili defensive rebound113–127
- Q429.1Jalen Wilson misses 25-foot three point jumper113–127
- Q437.0Day'Ron Sharpe defensive rebound113–127
- Q442.2Blake Wesley misses 10-foot pullup jump shot113–127
- Q453.0Devin Vassell defensive rebound113–127
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q28:13D'Angelo Russell makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cameron Johnson assists)BKN 40 – 35 SA · BKN 48% → 55% +8BKN 48% → 55%+8 pts
- Q26:04Chris Paul makes 26-foot three point shot (Devin Vassell assists)BKN 45 – 43 SA · SA 44% → 52% +8SA 44% → 52%+8 pts
- Q24:45Ziaire Williams makes 23-foot three point jumper (Nic Claxton assists)BKN 50 – 45 SA · BKN 48% → 57% +8BKN 48% → 57%+8 pts
- Q21:52De'Aaron Fox makes 23-foot three point jumper (Bismack Biyombo assists)BKN 55 – 58 SA · SA 57% → 65% +8SA 57% → 65%+8 pts
- Q39:10D'Angelo Russell makes 26-foot three point jumper (Cam Thomas assists)BKN 62 – 67 SA · BKN 22% → 29% +8BKN 22% → 29%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- SA -3.5
- ML BKN +135 / SA -155
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -0.5
- SA 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.1 pts
- SA: Elo 51.7%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- SA -143
- BKN +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 113.0 – 116.5 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1391 | 1416 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +29 | −21 | BKN: Stronger than its recent lineups · SA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SA +12 Elo | SA 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 62.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 61.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30104.8 | Points scored | 113.116th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.3 | Points allowed | 115.321st of 30 |
| 26th of 30−6.5 | Margin | −2.220th of 30 |
| 27th of 30106.7 | Offense rating | 111.117th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30113.3 | Defense rating | 113.321st of 30 |
| 29th of 3097.7 | Pace | 101.59th of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 20th of 3012–19 | Road vs home | 14–1421st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
+29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
−21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BKN |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 32–28 | 26–33 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 4–5 | 8–10 |
| Underdog | 28–23 | 18–23 |
| Overs–unders | 25–35 | 32–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BKN 1–2 SA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.