Brooklyn Nets at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Tyrese MartinPoints23
- Day'Ron SharpeAssists6
- Keon JohnsonRebounds8
Pistons- Jalen DurenPoints18
- Cade CunninghamAssists9
- Jalen DurenRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game94–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter94–115
- Q47.0shot clock turnover94–115
- Q431.0Ziaire Williams makes dunk94–115
- Q435.0Bobi Klintman lost ball turnover (Ziaire Williams steals)92–115
- Q451.1Paul Reed defensive rebound92–115
- Q454.1Killian Hayes misses 25-foot three point jumper92–115
- Q41:08Paul Reed makes free throw 2 of 292–115
- Q41:08Paul Reed makes free throw 1 of 292–114
- Q41:08Jalen Wilson shooting foul92–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q331.1Tyrese Martin makes two point shot (Keon Johnson assists)BKN 75 – 81 DET · BKN 9% → 13% +4BKN 9% → 13%+4 pts
- Q411:37Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Dennis Schroder assists)BKN 75 – 84 DET · DET 87% → 93% +6DET 87% → 93%+6 pts
- Q49:24Tyrese Martin makes driving layup (Day'Ron Sharpe assists)BKN 77 – 84 DET · BKN 7% → 10% +4BKN 7% → 10%+4 pts
- Q49:16Cade Cunningham makes driving layupBKN 77 – 86 DET · DET 90% → 93% +4DET 90% → 93%+4 pts
- Q48:05Cade Cunningham makes 22-foot three point jumper (Ausar Thompson assists)BKN 81 – 92 DET · DET 92% → 96% +4DET 92% → 96%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 84%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- DET -12.5
- ML BKN +500 / DET -700
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 81%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -9
- DET 80%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.6 pts
- DET: Elo 80.4%, market 84.0%
- Fair odds
- DET -525
- BKN +525 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 101.0 – 113.5 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 214.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1396 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | DET and BKN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −30 | +43 | BKN: Missing D'Angelo Russell −24, Cam Thomas −24 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · DET: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +245 Elo | DET 80.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 80.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 80.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 84.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30105.0 | Points scored | 114.312th of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.3 | Points allowed | 113.316th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−6.3 | Margin | +1.016th of 30 |
| 27th of 30107.0 | Offense rating | 112.114th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30113.4 | Defense rating | 111.111th of 30 |
| 29th of 3097.6 | Pace | 101.211th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 20th of 3012–18 | Road vs home | 16–1417th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
−30 Elo- D'Angelo Russell right ankle sprain−24 Elo
- Cam Thomas left hamstring - injury management−24 Elo
Pistons
+43 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BKN |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 32–27 | 34–26 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 4–5 | 11–13 |
| Underdog | 28–22 | 23–13 |
| Overs–unders | 25–34 | 31–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BKN 3–3 DET in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.