Denver Nuggets at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Jamal MurrayPoints31
- Nikola JokicAssists15
- Nikola JokicRebounds17
Pistons- Malik BeasleyPoints16
- Dennis SchroderAssists7
- Jalen DurenRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game134–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter134–119
- Q417.1Marcus Sasser makes free throw 1 of 1134–119
- Q417.1Spencer Jones shooting foul134–118
- Q417.1Marcus Sasser makes 10-foot driving floating jump shot (Ronald Holland II assists)134–118
- Q421.1Ronald Holland II offensive rebound134–116
- Q424.1Lindy Waters III misses 25-foot three point jumper134–116
- Q439.1Paul Reed defensive rebound134–116
- Q442.1Julian Strawther misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot134–116
- Q454.1Marcus Sasser makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshot134–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q26:42Michael Porter Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)DEN 52 – 48 DET · DEN 49% → 57% +8DEN 49% → 57%+8 pts
- Q21:03Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 22-foot three point jumper (Tobias Harris assists)DEN 66 – 62 DET · DET 33% → 42% +8DET 33% → 42%+8 pts
- Q310:42Tobias Harris makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ausar Thompson assists)DEN 70 – 66 DET · DET 32% → 41% +9DET 32% → 41%+9 pts
- Q39:50Michael Porter Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)DEN 75 – 68 DET · DEN 59% → 68% +9DEN 59% → 68%+9 pts
- Q39:19Jamal Murray makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotDEN 78 – 68 DET · DEN 68% → 76% +8DEN 68% → 76%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- DET -2.5
- ML DEN +110 / DET -130
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -1.5
- DET 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.5 pts
- DET: Elo 56.8%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -119
- DEN +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 119.0 – 121.5 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 240.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1597 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | DEN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +41 | +50 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · DET: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | DEN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DET +47 Elo | DET 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 51.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30121.2 | Points scored | 114.312th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30116.1 | Points allowed | 113.015th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+5.1 | Margin | +1.315th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30117.9 | Offense rating | 112.114th of 30 |
| 19th of 30112.9 | Defense rating | 110.811th of 30 |
| 5th of 30102.0 | Pace | 101.113th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 5th of 3018–12 | Road vs home | 16–1316th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+41 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
+50 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 30–29 | 34–25 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 23–23 | 11–12 |
| Underdog | 7–6 | 23–13 |
| Overs–unders | 34–25 | 30–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 3–0 DET in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.