Denver Nuggets at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints32
- Nikola JokicAssists10
- Nikola JokicRebounds14
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints28
- Giannis AntetokounmpoAssists7
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds19
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–121
- Q40.0(00:00) [Nuggets] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)112–121
- Q418.1Michael Porter Jr. makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshot112–121
- Q426.1Giannis Antetokounmpo makes dunk (Kyle Kuzma assists)109–121
- Q432.1Nikola Jokic makes driving layup109–119
- Q449.1Giannis Antetokounmpo makes free throw 2 of 2107–119
- Q449.1Bucks offensive team rebound107–118
- Q449.1Giannis Antetokounmpo misses free throw 1 of 2107–118
- Q449.1Christian Braun personal take foul107–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q235.0Damian Lillard makes 3-foot two point shotDEN 55 – 54 MIL · MIL 30% → 41% +11MIL 30% → 41%+11 pts
- Q311:47Jamal Murray makes 26-foot three pointerDEN 60 – 54 MIL · DEN 59% → 72% +14DEN 59% → 72%+14 pts
- Q31:17Gary Trent Jr. makes 27-foot running pullup jump shotDEN 77 – 84 MIL · MIL 61% → 72% +11MIL 61% → 72%+11 pts
- Q411:12AJ Green makes 22-foot three point jumper (Kyle Kuzma assists)DEN 83 – 87 MIL · MIL 50% → 63% +13MIL 50% → 63%+13 pts
- Q47:51Jamal Murray makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotDEN 90 – 95 MIL · DEN 17% → 29% +12DEN 17% → 29%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -3.5
- ML DEN -155 / MIL +130
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -3.5
- DEN 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.0 pts
- DEN: Elo 63.3%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- DEN -140
- MIL +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 122.5 – 119.0 MIL
- Posted spread, posted total 241.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1610 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +52 | −8 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIL: Missing Bobby Portis −14 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +94 Elo | DEN 63.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 60.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 60.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30121.3 | Points scored | 113.614th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30116.0 | Points allowed | 111.912th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+5.4 | Margin | +1.811th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30118.1 | Offense rating | 112.413th of 30 |
| 19th of 30112.9 | Defense rating | 110.610th of 30 |
| 5th of 30101.9 | Pace | 100.916th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 5th of 3018–11 | Road vs home | 19–97th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+52 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
−8 Elo- Bobby Portis suspended by league−14 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 30–28 | 27–31 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 23–22 | 19–22 |
| Underdog | 7–6 | 8–9 |
| Overs–unders | 34–24 | 28–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 1–1 MIL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.