San Antonio Spurs at Sacramento Kings, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Stephon CastlePoints25
- De'Aaron FoxAssists8
- Jeremy SochanRebounds8
Kings- Zach LaVinePoints36
- DeMar DeRozanAssists7
- Jonas ValanciunasRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–127
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–127
- Q420.1Sandro Mamukelashvili makes 26-foot three pointer (Blake Wesley assists)109–127
- Q432.0Skal Labissiere makes 27-foot three point jumper (Devin Carter assists)106–127
- Q446.1Sandro Mamukelashvili makes free throw 2 of 2106–124
- Q446.1Spurs offensive team rebound105–124
- Q446.1Sandro Mamukelashvili misses free throw 1 of 2105–124
- Q446.1Isaac Jones shooting foul105–124
- Q457.1Bismack Biyombo defensive rebound105–124
- Q41:03Devin Carter misses free throw 2 of 2105–124
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q12:43Keldon Johnson makes 27-foot three point jumper (Devin Vassell assists)SA 21 – 15 SAC · SA 40% → 47% +7SA 40% → 47%+7 pts
- Q147.1Stephon Castle makes 28-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)SA 26 – 18 SAC · SA 46% → 53% +7SA 46% → 53%+7 pts
- Q29:18Zach LaVine makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jake LaRavia assists)SA 28 – 29 SAC · SAC 60% → 67% +7SAC 60% → 67%+7 pts
- Q28:50Stephon Castle makes 27-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)SA 31 – 29 SAC · SA 33% → 40% +7SA 33% → 40%+7 pts
- Q28:08Zach LaVine makes 29-foot three point jumper (Jonas Valanciunas assists)SA 31 – 32 SAC · SAC 60% → 67% +7SAC 60% → 67%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- SAC -6.5
- ML SA +200 / SAC -240
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SAC -3.5
- SAC 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.1 pts
- SAC: Elo 62.8%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- SAC -212
- SA +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 113.5 – 120.0 SAC
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | SAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1429 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −17 | −57 | SA: Weaker than its recent lineups · SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SAC +91 Elo | SAC 62.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 64.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SAC 64.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SAC 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30113.3 | Points scored | 116.88th of 30 |
| 20th of 30115.2 | Points allowed | 115.119th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−1.9 | Margin | +1.713th of 30 |
| 16th of 30111.4 | Offense rating | 114.38th of 30 |
| 20th of 30113.3 | Defense rating | 112.615th of 30 |
| 9th of 30101.4 | Pace | 101.016th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–38th of 30 |
| 24th of 3010–19 | Road vs home | 15–1420th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
−17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Kings
−57 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 27–33 | 26–35 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–10 | 19–26 |
| Underdog | 18–23 | 7–9 |
| Overs–unders | 33–27 | 32–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 2–4 SAC in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.