Sacramento Kings at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- DeMar DeRozanPoints35
- Zach LaVineAssists6
- Jonas ValanciunasRebounds13
Nuggets- Russell WestbrookPoints25
- Jamal MurrayAssists8
- Nikola JokicRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–116
- Q411.1Zach LaVine bad pass (Zeke Nnaji steals)110–116
- Q420.0Jamal Murray makes free throw 2 of 2110–116
- Q420.0Jamal Murray makes free throw 1 of 2110–115
- Q420.0DeMar DeRozan personal take foul110–114
- Q420.0Nikola Jokic defensive rebound110–114
- Q421.1Jake LaRavia misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot110–114
- Q433.0Russell Westbrook personal take foul110–114
- Q436.1Kings Full timeout110–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:17Zeke Nnaji makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)SAC 95 – 96 DEN · DEN 51% → 65% +15DEN 51% → 65%+15 pts
- Q44:26Russell Westbrook makes two point shot (Christian Braun assists)SAC 102 – 101 DEN · DEN 38% → 51% +13DEN 38% → 51%+13 pts
- Q42:12Jamal Murray makes 26-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)SAC 104 – 110 DEN · DEN 81% → 94% +14DEN 81% → 94%+14 pts
- Q41:49Zach LaVine makes 29-foot three point jumper (DeMar DeRozan assists)SAC 107 – 110 DEN · SAC 4% → 18% +13SAC 4% → 18%+13 pts
- Q41:28Russell Westbrook makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)SAC 107 – 113 DEN · DEN 84% → 97% +13DEN 84% → 97%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -8.5
- ML SAC +270 / DEN -340
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -8.5
- DEN 79%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.0 pts
- DEN: Elo 79.1%, market 74.1%
- Fair odds
- DEN -286
- SAC +286 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 113.0 – 121.5 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1605 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −67 | +50 | SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +231 Elo | DEN 79.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 72.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 72.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 74.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30116.9 | Points scored | 121.13rd of 30 |
| 19th of 30115.0 | Points allowed | 116.023rd of 30 |
| 13th of 30+1.9 | Margin | +5.15th of 30 |
| 8th of 30114.4 | Offense rating | 117.92nd of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.6 | Defense rating | 113.017th of 30 |
| 14th of 30101.0 | Pace | 101.95th of 30 |
| 8th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–38th of 30 |
| 7th of 3017–14 | Road vs home | 20–96th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
−67 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
+50 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SAC |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 25–35 | 31–30 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 19–26 | 23–23 |
| Underdog | 6–9 | 8–7 |
| Overs–unders | 32–28 | 35–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SAC 3–3 DEN in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.