Denver Nuggets at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Jamal MurrayPoints26
- Nikola JokicAssists9
- Nikola JokicRebounds14
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints22
- Jaylen BrownAssists8
- Jayson TatumRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–110
- Q40.0Nuggets offensive team rebound103–110
- Q41.1Jamal Murray misses 27-foot three point shot103–110
- Q47.2Al Horford makes free throw 2 of 2103–110
- Q47.2Al Horford makes free throw 1 of 2103–109
- Q47.2Russell Westbrook personal take foul103–108
- Q48.1Nikola Jokic makes finger roll layup (Jamal Murray assists)103–108
- Q420.2Jayson Tatum makes free throw 2 of 2101–108
- Q420.2Jayson Tatum makes free throw 1 of 2101–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q411:06Derrick White makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)DEN 79 – 86 BOS · BOS 75% → 84% +9BOS 75% → 84%+9 pts
- Q45:57Nikola Jokic makes 28-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)DEN 91 – 95 BOS · DEN 11% → 22% +11DEN 11% → 22%+11 pts
- Q43:49Christian Braun makes 23-foot three point jumper (Russell Westbrook assists)DEN 94 – 99 BOS · DEN 5% → 14% +9DEN 5% → 14%+9 pts
- Q43:19Derrick White makes 26-foot three pointerDEN 94 – 102 BOS · BOS 87% → 96% +9BOS 87% → 96%+9 pts
- Q41:15Jamal Murray makes driving layupDEN 99 – 102 BOS · DEN 5% → 15% +10DEN 5% → 15%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -5.5
- ML DEN +210 / BOS -250
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -0.5
- BOS 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −16.6 pts
- BOS: Elo 52.3%, market 68.9%
- Fair odds
- BOS -221
- DEN +221 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 116.0 – 121.5 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 237.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1613 | 1660 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +43 | −24 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · BOS: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +16 Elo | BOS 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 63.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 62.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 68.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30121.4 | Points scored | 116.96th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30116.1 | Points allowed | 108.33rd of 30 |
| 5th of 30+5.3 | Margin | +8.63rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30118.0 | Offense rating | 117.34th of 30 |
| 18th of 30112.9 | Defense rating | 108.75th of 30 |
| 5th of 30102.1 | Pace | 98.726th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 5th of 3019–12 | Road vs home | 18–1111th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+43 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
−24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 31–29 | 26–34 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 23–23 | 25–32 |
| Underdog | 8–6 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 35–25 | 27–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 2–1 BOS in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.