Sacramento Kings at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- DeMar DeRozanPoints21
- DeMar DeRozanAssists6
- Jonas ValanciunasRebounds14
Rockets- Alperen SengunPoints30
- Alperen SengunAssists5
- Amen ThompsonRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–103
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–103
- Q410.0shot clock turnover113–103
- Q423.1Jonas Valanciunas offensive rebound113–103
- Q424.1DeMar DeRozan misses two point shot113–103
- Q448.1Alperen Sengun makes 1-foot dunk113–103
- Q449.0Alperen Sengun offensive rebound113–101
- Q452.0Dillon Brooks misses 27-foot three point shot113–101
- Q457.0Zach LaVine bad pass (Fred VanVleet steals)113–101
- Q41:09Zach LaVine defensive rebound113–101
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q310:47Jalen Green makes 29-foot three point jumper (Fred VanVleet assists)SAC 68 – 64 HOU · HOU 37% → 46% +9HOU 37% → 46%+9 pts
- Q37:49Jalen Green makes 24-foot three pointerSAC 74 – 71 HOU · HOU 38% → 47% +10HOU 38% → 47%+10 pts
- Q31:51Zach LaVine makes 26-foot three point shotSAC 87 – 82 HOU · SAC 52% → 63% +11SAC 52% → 63%+11 pts
- Q411:25Keon Ellis makes 26-foot three point jumper (DeMar DeRozan assists)SAC 92 – 82 HOU · SAC 73% → 82% +9SAC 73% → 82%+9 pts
- Q410:32Fred VanVleet makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tari Eason assists)SAC 92 – 85 HOU · HOU 16% → 26% +10HOU 16% → 26%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -3.5
- ML SAC +145 / HOU -175
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -3
- HOU 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- HOU: Elo 62.5%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- HOU -156
- SAC +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 113.0 – 116.5 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +1 | −7 | SAC: Usual rotation · HOU: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | SAC crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | HOU +89 Elo | HOU 62.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 59.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 59.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30116.9 | Points scored | 112.817th of 30 |
| 21st of 30115.6 | Points allowed | 108.85th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+1.3 | Margin | +4.07th of 30 |
| 8th of 30114.1 | Offense rating | 111.117th of 30 |
| 17th of 30112.8 | Defense rating | 107.22nd of 30 |
| 12th of 30101.2 | Pace | 100.916th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 9th of 3015–14 | Road vs home | 20–95th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
+1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
−7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SAC |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 23–35 | 32–27 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 18–26 | 22–19 |
| Underdog | 5–9 | 10–8 |
| Overs–unders | 32–26 | 31–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SAC 2–3 HOU in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.