Sacramento Kings at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Zach LaVinePoints22
- Malik MonkAssists8
- Jonas ValanciunasRebounds9
Mavericks- Kai JonesPoints21
- Naji MarshallAssists6
- Kai JonesRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–98
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–98
- Q416.1Markelle Fultz defensive rebound122–98
- Q419.1Olivier-Maxence Prosper misses 23-foot three point jumper122–98
- Q436.1Isaac Jones makes layup (Markelle Fultz assists)122–98
- Q441.0Skal Labissiere offensive rebound120–98
- Q443.1Doug McDermott misses 27-foot three point jumper120–98
- Q41:03Olivier-Maxence Prosper makes free throw 2 of 2120–98
- Q41:03Olivier-Maxence Prosper makes free throw 1 of 2120–97
- Q41:03Skal Labissiere shooting foul120–96
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q211:15Zach LaVine makes 25-foot three point shot (Markelle Fultz assists)SAC 32 – 24 DAL · SAC 65% → 72% +6SAC 65% → 72%+6 pts
- Q29:01Klay Thompson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Naji Marshall assists)SAC 34 – 30 DAL · DAL 30% → 37% +7DAL 30% → 37%+7 pts
- Q25:17Zach LaVine makes 26-foot three pointer (Jake LaRavia assists)SAC 45 – 36 DAL · SAC 69% → 75% +7SAC 69% → 75%+7 pts
- Q24:54Max Christie makes 25-foot three pointer (Spencer Dinwiddie assists)SAC 45 – 39 DAL · DAL 25% → 31% +7DAL 25% → 31%+7 pts
- Q22:31Jaden Hardy makes 25-foot three point jumper (Naji Marshall assists)SAC 51 – 46 DAL · DAL 26% → 33% +7DAL 26% → 33%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Kings 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- SAC -1.5
- ML SAC -130 / DAL +110
- Pre-line forecast
- SAC 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -3.5
- SAC 36%
- Ratings vs. market
- −18.2 pts
- SAC: Elo 36.0%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- SAC -119
- DAL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 116.5 – 115.0 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −50 | −34 | SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +100 Elo | DAL 64.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SAC 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 50.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SAC 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30116.8 | Points scored | 115.011th of 30 |
| 21st of 30115.3 | Points allowed | 113.416th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+1.5 | Margin | +1.513th of 30 |
| 8th of 30114.1 | Offense rating | 113.510th of 30 |
| 16th of 30112.7 | Defense rating | 112.014th of 30 |
| 12th of 30101.1 | Pace | 100.918th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 8th of 3016–14 | Road vs home | 19–1212th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
−50 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
−34 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SAC |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 24–35 | 32–29 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 18–26 | 14–15 |
| Underdog | 6–9 | 18–14 |
| Overs–unders | 32–27 | 30–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SAC 4–2 DAL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.