Milwaukee Bucks at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints29
- Giannis AntetokounmpoAssists9
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds9
Mavericks- Kyrie IrvingPoints31
- Klay ThompsonAssists5
- Moses BrownRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game132–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter132–117
- Q412.1Jaden Hardy makes 25-foot three point jumper (Klay Thompson assists)132–117
- Q423.0Brook Lopez makes layup (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)132–114
- Q444.0Giannis Antetokounmpo defensive rebound130–114
- Q446.1Giannis Antetokounmpo blocks Klay Thompson 's 7-foot two point shot130–114
- Q456.0Giannis Antetokounmpo makes 11-foot two point shot130–114
- Q41:12Moses Brown makes 1-foot layup (Naji Marshall assists)128–114
- Q41:19Damian Lillard makes 30-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)128–112
- Q41:39Jaden Hardy makes 26-foot three pointer125–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q28:36Gary Trent Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kevin Porter Jr. assists)MIL 41 – 44 DAL · MIL 41% → 49% +7MIL 41% → 49%+7 pts
- Q26:39Damian Lillard makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)MIL 46 – 53 DAL · MIL 31% → 38% +7MIL 31% → 38%+7 pts
- Q24:30Gary Trent Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)MIL 53 – 57 DAL · MIL 37% → 45% +8MIL 37% → 45%+8 pts
- Q24:09Taurean Prince makes 23-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)MIL 56 – 57 DAL · MIL 45% → 53% +8MIL 45% → 53%+8 pts
- Q21:24Damian Lillard makes 25-foot three pointer (Kyle Kuzma assists)MIL 67 – 61 DAL · MIL 64% → 71% +8MIL 64% → 71%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bucks 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- MIL -2.5
- ML MIL -150 / DAL +125
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -1
- MIL 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.8 pts
- MIL: Elo 46.6%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- MIL -135
- DAL +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 116.0 – 113.5 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1553 | 1563 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −2 | −24 | MIL: Missing Bobby Portis −14 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +24 Elo | DAL 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 54.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30113.8 | Points scored | 114.911th of 30 |
| 12th of 30111.9 | Points allowed | 113.116th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+1.9 | Margin | +1.812th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.4 | Offense rating | 113.510th of 30 |
| 10th of 30110.5 | Defense rating | 111.713th of 30 |
| 15th of 30101.0 | Pace | 100.916th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 18th of 3012–16 | Road vs home | 19–1111th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
−2 Elo- Bobby Portis suspended by league−14 Elo
Mavericks
−24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 28–31 | 32–28 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 19–22 | 14–15 |
| Underdog | 9–9 | 18–13 |
| Overs–unders | 28–31 | 29–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 2–0 DAL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.