Denver Nuggets at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints35
- Nikola JokicAssists8
- Nikola JokicRebounds18
Thunder- Luguentz DortPoints26
- Cason WallaceAssists8
- Luguentz DortRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game140–127
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter140–127
- Q419.2Nikola Jokic defensive rebound140–127
- Q421.2Jaylin Williams misses 8-foot two point shot140–127
- Q433.1Jamal Murray makes 16-foot pullup jump shot (Nikola Jokic assists)140–127
- Q456.1Aaron Wiggins makes two point shot138–127
- Q41:01Jaylin Williams defensive rebound138–125
- Q41:05Jamal Murray misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot138–125
- Q41:24Aaron Wiggins makes 28-foot three pointer (Ousmane Dieng assists)138–125
- Q41:34Ousmane Dieng offensive rebound138–122
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q31:17Nikola Jokic makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)DEN 99 – 99 OKC · DEN 25% → 36% +10DEN 25% → 36%+10 pts
- Q411:03Peyton Watson makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)DEN 106 – 99 OKC · DEN 54% → 67% +12DEN 54% → 67%+12 pts
- Q410:05Jamal Murray makes 25-foot three pointerDEN 109 – 101 OKC · DEN 60% → 72% +12DEN 60% → 72%+12 pts
- Q49:32Michael Porter Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Zeke Nnaji assists)DEN 114 – 104 OKC · DEN 69% → 81% +11DEN 69% → 81%+11 pts
- Q48:02Luguentz Dort makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)DEN 117 – 111 OKC · OKC 19% → 32% +12OKC 19% → 32%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -9.5
- ML DEN +290 / OKC -380
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -6.5
- OKC 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- OKC: Elo 74.2%, market 75.5%
- Fair odds
- OKC -309
- DEN +309 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 115.5 – 125.0 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 240.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1601 | 1746 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +46 | +49 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +183 Elo | OKC 74.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 72.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 72.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 75.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30121.2 | Points scored | 119.04th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30116.5 | Points allowed | 106.42nd of 30 |
| 5th of 30+4.7 | Margin | +12.51st of 30 |
| 2nd of 30118.0 | Offense rating | 116.85th of 30 |
| 21st of 30113.4 | Defense rating | 104.51st of 30 |
| 6th of 30101.8 | Pace | 101.68th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 9–12nd of 30 |
| 5th of 3019–14 | Road vs home | 28–42nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+46 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+49 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 31–33 | 41–24 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 23–25 | 40–23 |
| Underdog | 8–8 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 36–28 | 37–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 2–5 OKC in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.