Denver Nuggets at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Michael Porter Jr.Points24
- Nikola JokicAssists9
- Michael Porter Jr.Rebounds15
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints40
- Jalen WilliamsAssists8
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–127
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–127
- Q418.1Aaron Wiggins defensive rebound103–127
- Q421.1Jalen Pickett misses 14-foot two point shot103–127
- Q444.1Isaiah Joe makes 2-foot two point shot (Jaylin Williams assists)103–127
- Q454.1Jaylin Williams defensive rebound103–125
- Q458.1Spencer Jones misses 26-foot three point jumper103–125
- Q41:13Jalen Pickett enters the game for Russell Westbrook103–125
- Q41:13Vlatko Cancar enters the game for Jamal Murray103–125
- Q41:13Hunter Tyson enters the game for Nikola Jokic103–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q328.1Jamal Murray makes 23-foot three point jumper (Russell Westbrook assists)DEN 83 – 86 OKC · DEN 18% → 27% +9DEN 18% → 27%+9 pts
- Q410:41Cason Wallace makes 23-foot three point jumper (Alex Caruso assists)DEN 85 – 89 OKC · OKC 65% → 76% +11OKC 65% → 76%+11 pts
- Q410:12Russell Westbrook makes 25-foot three pointerDEN 88 – 89 OKC · DEN 23% → 35% +12DEN 23% → 35%+12 pts
- Q410:00Alex Caruso makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jalen Williams assists)DEN 88 – 92 OKC · OKC 65% → 77% +12OKC 65% → 77%+12 pts
- Q49:18Michael Porter Jr. makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jalen Pickett assists)DEN 91 – 94 OKC · DEN 17% → 27% +10DEN 17% → 27%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -7.5
- ML DEN +250 / OKC -300
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -6
- OKC 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- OKC: Elo 71.9%, market 72.4%
- Fair odds
- OKC -263
- DEN +263 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 117.5 – 125.0 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 242.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1611 | 1736 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +61 | +50 | DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | DEN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | OKC +163 Elo | OKC 71.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 71.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 71.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 72.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30121.5 | Points scored | 118.84th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30116.3 | Points allowed | 106.52nd of 30 |
| 5th of 30+5.2 | Margin | +12.41st of 30 |
| 2nd of 30118.2 | Offense rating | 116.65th of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.2 | Defense rating | 104.51st of 30 |
| 6th of 30101.8 | Pace | 101.77th of 30 |
| 7th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 30 |
| 5th of 3019–13 | Road vs home | 27–42nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
+61 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
+50 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 31–32 | 40–24 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 23–25 | 39–23 |
| Underdog | 8–7 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 36–27 | 37–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 2–4 OKC in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.