Oklahoma City Thunder at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints41
- Jalen WilliamsAssists9
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds15
Grizzlies- Ja MorantPoints24
- Ja MorantAssists6
- Brandon ClarkeRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–103
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–103
- Q415.1Cam Spencer makes free throw 2 of 2120–103
- Q415.1Cam Spencer makes free throw 1 of 2120–102
- Q415.1Adam Flagler shooting foul120–101
- Q425.1Marvin Bagley III defensive rebound120–101
- Q429.2Kenrich Williams misses 16-foot pullup jump shot120–101
- Q448.1Lamar Stevens makes driving layup (GG Jackson assists)120–101
- Q458.1Aaron Wiggins makes 5-foot two point shot120–99
- Q41:12Ousmane Dieng defensive rebound118–99
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q29:06Desmond Bane makes 25-foot running pullup jump shotOKC 36 – 39 MEM · MEM 33% → 40% +7MEM 33% → 40%+7 pts
- Q37:53Ja Morant makes 22-foot three point jumper (Vince Williams Jr. assists)OKC 67 – 64 MEM · MEM 20% → 28% +8MEM 20% → 28%+8 pts
- Q37:39Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jalen Williams assists)OKC 70 – 64 MEM · OKC 72% → 80% +8OKC 72% → 80%+8 pts
- Q410:35Scotty Pippen Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Luke Kennard assists)OKC 91 – 85 MEM · MEM 11% → 18% +7MEM 11% → 18%+7 pts
- Q48:57Aaron Wiggins makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jalen Williams assists)OKC 94 – 85 MEM · OKC 83% → 91% +8OKC 83% → 91%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -7.5
- ML OKC -275 / MEM +225
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -6.5
- OKC 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.5 pts
- OKC: Elo 74.0%, market 70.4%
- Fair odds
- OKC -238
- MEM +238 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 130.0 – 122.5 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 252.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1720 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +40 | +14 | OKC: Missing Chet Holmgren −22 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +181 Elo | OKC 74.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 73.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 73.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 70.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30119.0 | Points scored | 123.31st of 30 |
| 2nd of 30106.8 | Points allowed | 117.025th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+12.2 | Margin | +6.34th of 30 |
| 5th of 30116.8 | Offense rating | 115.86th of 30 |
| 1st of 30104.8 | Defense rating | 109.99th of 30 |
| 7th of 30101.6 | Pace | 106.31st of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3023–7 | Road vs home | 22–94th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+40 Elo- Chet Holmgren right lower leg contusion−22 Elo
Grizzlies
+14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 38–24 | 35–26 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 37–23 | 25–16 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 10–10 |
| Overs–unders | 37–25 | 39–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 5–0 MEM in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.