Atlanta Hawks at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hawks- Zaccharie RisacherPoints27
- Trae YoungAssists15
- Onyeka OkongwuRebounds12
Grizzlies- Desmond BanePoints35
- Desmond BaneAssists10
- Desmond BaneRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game132–130
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter132–130
- Q40.0(00:00) [Hawks] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)132–130
- Q40.0Caris LeVert makes two point shot (Dyson Daniels assists)132–130
- Q43.1Desmond Bane lost ball turnover (Dyson Daniels steals)130–130
- Q421.1Vince Williams Jr. defensive rebound130–130
- Q424.1Caris LeVert misses 24-foot three point jumper130–130
- Q431.1Dyson Daniels defensive rebound130–130
- Q434.1Vince Williams Jr. misses driving floating jump shot130–130
- Q450.0Caris LeVert personal foul130–130
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q33:25Desmond Bane makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotATL 94 – 96 MEM · MEM 59% → 69% +10MEM 59% → 69%+10 pts
- Q42:37Zach Edey makes 1-foot dunk (Desmond Bane assists)ATL 125 – 130 MEM · MEM 79% → 89% +11MEM 79% → 89%+11 pts
- Q42:13Caris LeVert makes 24-foot three point jumper (Terance Mann assists)ATL 128 – 130 MEM · ATL 9% → 27% +18ATL 9% → 27%+18 pts
- Q41:34Caris LeVert makes 1-foot two point shotATL 130 – 130 MEM · ATL 25% → 46% +21ATL 25% → 46%+21 pts
- Q40.0Caris LeVert makes two point shot (Dyson Daniels assists)ATL 132 – 130 MEM · ATL 43% → 100% +57ATL 43% → 100%+57 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Grizzlies 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- MEM -7.5
- ML ATL +230 / MEM -290
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -4.5
- MEM 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- MEM: Elo 67.1%, market 71.0%
- Fair odds
- MEM -245
- ATL +245 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 122.0 – 129.5 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 251.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1434 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +17 | +4 | ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups · MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MEM +124 Elo | MEM 67.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 67.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 67.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MEM 71.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ATL | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30116.6 | Points scored | 123.21st of 30 |
| 27th of 30119.5 | Points allowed | 116.725th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−2.8 | Margin | +6.44th of 30 |
| 21st of 30110.4 | Offense rating | 115.66th of 30 |
| 19th of 30113.1 | Defense rating | 109.68th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30104.9 | Pace | 106.31st of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–616th of 30 |
| 14th of 3014–17 | Road vs home | 22–84th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hawks
+17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
+4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 28–32 | 35–25 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 7–15 | 25–15 |
| Underdog | 21–17 | 10–10 |
| Overs–unders | 35–25 | 38–22 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 1–2 MEM in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.