Houston Rockets at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Cam WhitmorePoints27
- Reed SheppardAssists5
- Cam WhitmoreRebounds11
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints51
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists7
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game128–137
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter128–137
- Q414.2Jalen Williams defensive rebound128–137
- Q415.2Cam Whitmore misses driving layup128–137
- Q425.0Luguentz Dort makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jalen Williams assists)128–137
- Q437.0Nate Williams makes two point shot128–134
- Q442.0Chet Holmgren lost ball turnover (Nate Williams steals)126–134
- Q41:01Cason Wallace defensive rebound126–134
- Q41:03Cam Whitmore misses free throw 2 of 2126–134
- Q41:03Cam Whitmore makes free throw 1 of 2126–134
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q29:13Reed Sheppard makes 28-foot three point shot (Jae'Sean Tate assists)HOU 42 – 33 OKC · HOU 25% → 32% +6HOU 25% → 32%+6 pts
- Q28:59Kenrich Williams makes 27-foot three point jumper (Cason Wallace assists)HOU 42 – 36 OKC · OKC 68% → 75% +6OKC 68% → 75%+6 pts
- Q28:23Cason Wallace makes 22-foot three pointer (Kenrich Williams assists)HOU 42 – 39 OKC · OKC 74% → 80% +6OKC 74% → 80%+6 pts
- Q21:26Cason Wallace makes 25-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Hartenstein assists)HOU 58 – 59 OKC · OKC 78% → 84% +6OKC 78% → 84%+6 pts
- Q311:36Jabari Smith Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Reed Sheppard assists)HOU 65 – 63 OKC · HOU 17% → 23% +6HOU 17% → 23%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 89%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -15.5
- ML HOU +800 / OKC -1600
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 82%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -11
- OKC 86%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.9 pts
- OKC: Elo 85.6%, market 89.4%
- Fair odds
- OKC -847
- HOU +847 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 108.5 – 124.0 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1718 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | OKC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −72 | +45 | HOU: Missing Alperen Sengun −50, Amen Thompson −26 · OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +309 Elo | OKC 85.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 81.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 81.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 89.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30112.6 | Points scored | 118.74th of 30 |
| 5th of 30108.8 | Points allowed | 106.52nd of 30 |
| 7th of 30+3.8 | Margin | +12.21st of 30 |
| 18th of 30111.0 | Offense rating | 116.65th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30107.3 | Defense rating | 104.61st of 30 |
| 18th of 30100.9 | Pace | 101.57th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 30 |
| 6th of 3017–12 | Road vs home | 25–42nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
−72 Elo- Alperen Sengun lower back soreness−50 Elo
- Amen Thompson right shoulder soreness−26 Elo
Thunder
+45 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 32–28 | 38–23 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 22–20 | 37–22 |
| Underdog | 10–8 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 31–29 | 36–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 3–4 OKC in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.