Portland Trail Blazers at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Scoot HendersonPoints22
- Anfernee SimonsAssists5
- Donovan ClinganRebounds12
Thunder- Aaron WigginsPoints30
- Jaylin WilliamsAssists11
- Jaylin WilliamsRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game89–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter89–107
- Q48.0shot clock turnover89–107
- Q431.0Branden Carlson defensive rebound89–107
- Q433.1Rayan Rupert misses 5-foot two point shot89–107
- Q449.1Kenrich Williams makes 6-foot driving floating jump shot89–107
- Q41:05Branden Carlson defensive rebound89–105
- Q41:07Bryce McGowens misses 22-foot three point jumper89–105
- Q41:09Ousmane Dieng enters the game for Aaron Wiggins89–105
- Q41:09Adam Flagler enters the game for Isaiah Joe89–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q27:09Isaiah Joe makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaylin Williams assists)POR 37 – 40 OKC · OKC 53% → 60% +8OKC 53% → 60%+8 pts
- Q48:00Alex Caruso makes 25-foot three pointerPOR 79 – 87 OKC · OKC 75% → 85% +11OKC 75% → 85%+11 pts
- Q47:07Shaedon Sharpe makes driving layupPOR 84 – 87 OKC · POR 24% → 33% +9POR 24% → 33%+9 pts
- Q46:04Jaylin Williams makes 25-foot three point jumper (Alex Caruso assists)POR 85 – 90 OKC · OKC 63% → 78% +15OKC 63% → 78%+15 pts
- Q44:59Aaron Wiggins makes 23-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Joe assists)POR 85 – 93 OKC · OKC 80% → 91% +11OKC 80% → 91%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -1.5
- ML POR +105 / OKC -125
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -4
- OKC 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +12.4 pts
- OKC: Elo 65.7%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- OKC -114
- POR +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 113.5 – 115.0 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1727 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +17 | −145 | POR: Missing Deni Avdija −14 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · OKC: Missing Jalen Williams −57, Chet Holmgren −46 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +113 Elo | OKC 65.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 72.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 71.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30110.8 | Points scored | 119.04th of 30 |
| 18th of 30114.5 | Points allowed | 106.82nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−3.7 | Margin | +12.31st of 30 |
| 24th of 30109.7 | Offense rating | 116.85th of 30 |
| 20th of 30113.3 | Defense rating | 104.71st of 30 |
| 19th of 30100.6 | Pace | 101.77th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 3012–21 | Road vs home | 26–42nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
+17 Elo- Deni Avdija left quad contusion−14 Elo
Thunder
−145 Elo- Jalen Williams right wrist sprain−57 Elo
- Chet Holmgren right lower leg contusion−46 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  POR |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 36–27 | 39–24 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 4–4 | 38–23 |
| Underdog | 32–23 | 1–1 |
| Overs–unders | 33–30 | 37–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 0–7 OKC in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 7.