Portland Trail Blazers at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Anfernee SimonsPoints30
- Anfernee SimonsAssists6
- Donovan ClinganRebounds7
Celtics- Payton PritchardPoints43
- Jaylen BrownAssists8
- Payton PritchardRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–128
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–128
- Q41.1Trail Blazers offensive team rebound118–128
- Q41.1Derrick White blocks Anfernee Simons 's 29-foot three point pullup jump shot118–128
- Q46.1Payton Pritchard makes free throw 2 of 2118–128
- Q46.1Payton Pritchard makes free throw 1 of 2118–127
- Q46.1Kris Murray enters the game for Scoot Henderson118–126
- Q46.1Scoot Henderson personal foul118–126
- Q412.1Drew Peterson enters the game for Al Horford118–126
- Q412.1JD Davison enters the game for Jaylen Brown118–126
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q25:58Scoot Henderson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Shaedon Sharpe assists)POR 46 – 42 BOS · POR 32% → 39% +7POR 32% → 39%+7 pts
- Q25:19Derrick White makes 25-foot three pointer (Payton Pritchard assists)POR 47 – 45 BOS · BOS 58% → 66% +8BOS 58% → 66%+8 pts
- Q24:42Derrick White makes 26-foot three point jumper (Al Horford assists)POR 49 – 48 BOS · BOS 60% → 68% +8BOS 60% → 68%+8 pts
- Q24:01Derrick White makes 23-foot three point jumper (Al Horford assists)POR 51 – 51 BOS · BOS 63% → 70% +7BOS 63% → 70%+7 pts
- Q22:46Payton Pritchard makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)POR 53 – 54 BOS · BOS 65% → 72% +7BOS 65% → 72%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -8.5
- ML POR +290 / BOS -380
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -3
- BOS 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −13.9 pts
- BOS: Elo 61.7%, market 75.5%
- Fair odds
- BOS -309
- POR +309 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 108.0 – 116.5 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1668 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +40 | −86 | POR: Stronger than its recent lineups · BOS: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +83 Elo | BOS 61.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 74.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 73.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 75.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30110.7 | Points scored | 116.88th of 30 |
| 18th of 30114.2 | Points allowed | 108.23rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−3.6 | Margin | +8.63rd of 30 |
| 24th of 30109.5 | Offense rating | 117.34th of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.0 | Defense rating | 108.74th of 30 |
| 19th of 30100.7 | Pace | 98.626th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–37th of 30 |
| 20th of 3012–20 | Road vs home | 19–1111th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
+40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
−86 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  POR |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 36–26 | 27–34 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 4–4 | 26–32 |
| Underdog | 32–22 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 32–30 | 27–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 0–2 BOS in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.