Phoenix Suns at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Devin BookerPoints34
- Bradley BealAssists9
- Mason PlumleeRebounds11
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints31
- Nikola JokicAssists22
- Nikola JokicRebounds21
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game141–149
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime141–149
- OT18.1Mason Plumlee makes dunk (Kevin Durant assists)141–149
- OT23.0Aaron Gordon makes free throw 2 of 2139–149
- OT23.0Aaron Gordon makes free throw 1 of 2139–148
- OT23.0Devin Booker personal foul139–147
- OT26.1Mason Plumlee makes 1-foot dunk (Bradley Beal assists)139–147
- OT31.0Christian Braun makes free throw 2 of 2137–147
- OT31.0Christian Braun makes free throw 1 of 2137–146
- OT31.0Devin Booker personal foul137–145
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:16Devin Booker makes two point shotPHX 120 – 120 DEN · PHX 26% → 44% +18PHX 26% → 44%+18 pts
- Q41:35Devin Booker makes 10-foot two point shotPHX 122 – 120 DEN · PHX 45% → 67% +22PHX 45% → 67%+22 pts
- Q433.1Michael Porter Jr. makes layupPHX 122 – 122 DEN · DEN 18% → 53% +34DEN 18% → 53%+34 pts
- Q41.1Christian Braun makes 27-foot three point jumper (Nikola Jokic assists)PHX 122 – 125 DEN · DEN 51% → >99% +49DEN 51% → >99%+49 pts
- Q40.0Kevin Durant makes 23-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)PHX 125 – 125 DEN · PHX 0% → 41% +41PHX 0% → 41%+41 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -8.5
- ML PHX +290 / DEN -380
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -8.5
- DEN 80%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.6 pts
- DEN: Elo 80.2%, market 75.5%
- Fair odds
- DEN -309
- PHX +309 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 117.0 – 125.5 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 242.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1458 | 1608 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −2 | +55 | PHX: Usual rotation · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +243 Elo | DEN 80.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 71.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 72.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 75.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30113.8 | Points scored | 121.03rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30116.0 | Points allowed | 115.922nd of 30 |
| 20th of 30−2.1 | Margin | +5.15th of 30 |
| 9th of 30113.8 | Offense rating | 117.92nd of 30 |
| 27th of 30115.9 | Defense rating | 112.917th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3099.2 | Pace | 101.95th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–38th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3011–20 | Road vs home | 21–94th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
−2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
+55 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHX |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 23–39 | 31–31 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 14–24 | 23–24 |
| Underdog | 9–15 | 8–7 |
| Overs–unders | 32–30 | 35–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHX 3–3 DEN in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.