LA Clippers at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Ivica ZubacPoints35
- James HardenAssists15
- Ivica ZubacRebounds10
Suns- Kevin DurantPoints34
- Devin BookerAssists8
- Kevin DurantRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–119
- Q40.0Clippers offensive team rebound117–119
- Q40.1Ivica Zubac misses 2-foot tip shot117–119
- Q40.2Ivica Zubac offensive rebound117–119
- Q41.1Kawhi Leonard misses two point shot117–119
- Q42.0Kawhi Leonard offensive rebound117–119
- Q43.1James Harden misses free throw 2 of 2117–119
- Q43.1Drew Eubanks enters the game for Kris Dunn117–119
- Q43.1Bogdan Bogdanovic enters the game for Amir Coffey117–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:02Devin Booker makes two point shot (Collin Gillespie assists)LAC 108 – 110 PHX · PHX 48% → 64% +16PHX 48% → 64%+16 pts
- Q42:17Collin Gillespie makes driving layup (Grayson Allen assists)LAC 108 – 112 PHX · PHX 67% → 82% +15PHX 67% → 82%+15 pts
- Q42:10Ivica Zubac makes 6-foot layup (James Harden assists)LAC 110 – 112 PHX · LAC 17% → 33% +15LAC 17% → 33%+15 pts
- Q41:10Kevin Durant makes 4-foot jumper (Mason Plumlee assists)LAC 112 – 116 PHX · PHX 74% → 90% +17PHX 74% → 90%+17 pts
- Q436.1Collin Gillespie makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kevin Durant assists)LAC 114 – 119 PHX · PHX 82% → 99% +17PHX 82% → 99%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -2.5
- ML LAC -150 / PHX +125
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -1.5
- LAC 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- LAC: Elo 55.2%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- LAC -135
- PHX +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 113.0 – 110.5 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1452 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +28 | −2 | LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHX: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | LAC crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | LAC +36 Elo | LAC 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 55.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30110.6 | Points scored | 113.814th of 30 |
| 4th of 30108.6 | Points allowed | 115.922nd of 30 |
| 11th of 30+2.0 | Margin | −2.220th of 30 |
| 21st of 30110.6 | Offense rating | 113.69th of 30 |
| 4th of 30108.6 | Defense rating | 115.827th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3099.5 | Pace | 99.223rd of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 18th of 3013–18 | Road vs home | 17–1313th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
+28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
−2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 32–28 | 22–39 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 18–13 | 14–24 |
| Underdog | 14–15 | 8–15 |
| Overs–unders | 26–34 | 31–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 3–4 PHX in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.