LA Clippers at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Ivica ZubacPoints27
- James HardenAssists9
- Ivica ZubacRebounds16
Lakers- Luka DoncicPoints31
- Luka DoncicAssists5
- LeBron JamesRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game102–106
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter102–106
- Q47.0LeBron James defensive rebound102–106
- Q410.0Bogdan Bogdanovic misses 28-foot three point jumper102–106
- Q415.1Bogdan Bogdanovic enters the game for Kris Dunn102–106
- Q415.1Jaxson Hayes enters the game for Luka Doncic102–106
- Q415.1Jarred Vanderbilt enters the game for Dalton Knecht102–106
- Q415.1LeBron James lost ball turnover (Kawhi Leonard steals)102–106
- Q415.1(00:15.8) [Clippers] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [Clippers] retain their timeout102–106
- Q415.1Clippers Full timeout102–106
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q34:05Kawhi Leonard makes 26-foot three point jumper (Amir Coffey assists)LAC 72 – 69 LAL · LAC 48% → 58% +11LAC 48% → 58%+11 pts
- Q411:48Bogdan Bogdanovic makes 28-foot three point jumper (Ben Simmons assists)LAC 80 – 83 LAL · LAC 25% → 36% +11LAC 25% → 36%+11 pts
- Q49:03Dorian Finney-Smith makes 23-foot three point jumper (Gabe Vincent assists)LAC 83 – 90 LAL · LAL 70% → 81% +11LAL 70% → 81%+11 pts
- Q46:50Luka Doncic makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotLAC 88 – 95 LAL · LAL 72% → 84% +12LAL 72% → 84%+12 pts
- Q44:41Luka Doncic makes two point shot (Gabe Vincent assists)LAC 96 – 100 LAL · LAL 64% → 76% +11LAL 64% → 76%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -0.5
- ML LAC +110 / LAL -130
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -4.5
- LAL 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +13.5 pts
- LAL: Elo 67.7%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- LAL -119
- LAC +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 110.0 – 110.5 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 220.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1620 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | LAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +16 | +43 | LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +129 Elo | LAL 67.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 53.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30110.9 | Points scored | 112.915th of 30 |
| 4th of 30108.6 | Points allowed | 111.411th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+2.3 | Margin | +1.513th of 30 |
| 19th of 30110.7 | Offense rating | 113.111th of 30 |
| 4th of 30108.4 | Defense rating | 111.612th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3099.7 | Pace | 99.721st of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 16th of 3013–16 | Road vs home | 21–74th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
+16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
+43 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 32–26 | 32–25 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 18–12 | 17–16 |
| Underdog | 14–14 | 15–9 |
| Overs–unders | 26–32 | 27–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 2–4 LAL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.