LA Clippers at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints33
- James HardenAssists8
- Kawhi LeonardRebounds10
Lakers- Luka DoncicPoints29
- Luka DoncicAssists9
- Jarred VanderbiltRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game102–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter102–108
- Q43.1Lakers defensive team rebound102–108
- Q46.1Bogdan Bogdanovic misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot102–108
- Q48.1Drew Eubanks enters the game for Kris Dunn102–108
- Q48.1Clippers Full timeout102–108
- Q48.1Dorian Finney-Smith makes free throw 2 of 2102–108
- Q48.1Jarred Vanderbilt enters the game for Dalton Knecht102–107
- Q48.1Lakers offensive team rebound102–107
- Q48.1Dorian Finney-Smith misses free throw 1 of 2102–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q26:12Gabe Vincent makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jarred Vanderbilt assists)LAC 43 – 47 LAL · LAL 49% → 57% +8LAL 49% → 57%+8 pts
- Q24:16Dorian Finney-Smith makes 22-foot three point jumper (Gabe Vincent assists)LAC 43 – 50 LAL · LAL 57% → 65% +8LAL 57% → 65%+8 pts
- Q47:59Ivica Zubac makes 5-foot two point shot (Amir Coffey assists)LAC 88 – 93 LAL · LAC 20% → 28% +8LAC 20% → 28%+8 pts
- Q47:02LeBron James makes 23-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)LAC 88 – 96 LAL · LAL 74% → 85% +11LAL 74% → 85%+11 pts
- Q45:13Dalton Knecht makes 27-foot three point jumper (Gabe Vincent assists)LAC 92 – 102 LAL · LAL 86% → 94% +8LAL 86% → 94%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -2.5
- ML LAC -130 / LAL +110
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -3.5
- LAC 36%
- Ratings vs. market
- −18.0 pts
- LAC: Elo 36.3%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- LAC -119
- LAL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 112.0 – 109.5 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 221.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1624 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +62 | +11 | LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +98 Elo | LAL 63.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 50.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30110.7 | Points scored | 112.817th of 30 |
| 4th of 30108.6 | Points allowed | 111.38th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+2.2 | Margin | +1.612th of 30 |
| 20th of 30110.6 | Offense rating | 113.011th of 30 |
| 4th of 30108.5 | Defense rating | 111.512th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3099.6 | Pace | 99.621st of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 30 |
| 17th of 3013–17 | Road vs home | 22–73rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
+62 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
+11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 32–27 | 33–25 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 18–12 | 18–16 |
| Underdog | 14–15 | 15–9 |
| Overs–unders | 26–33 | 27–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 2–5 LAL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.