New Orleans Pelicans at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Zion WilliamsonPoints29
- Zion WilliamsonAssists8
- Bruce BrownRebounds7
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints29
- Anthony EdwardsAssists4
- Rudy GobertRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–115
- Q44.1Jaylen Clark enters the game for Julius Randle119–115
- Q44.1Nickeil Alexander-Walker enters the game for Naz Reid119–115
- Q44.1Pelicans Full timeout119–115
- Q44.1Julius Randle personal take foul119–115
- Q46.0Zion Williamson defensive rebound119–115
- Q48.1Anthony Edwards misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot119–115
- Q413.1Timberwolves Full timeout119–115
- Q413.1Zion Williamson makes 1-foot layup (Jose Alvarado assists)119–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:20Jaden McDaniels makes 24-foot three point jumper (Naz Reid assists)NO 105 – 106 MIN · MIN 54% → 70% +16MIN 54% → 70%+16 pts
- Q43:21Yves Missi makes dunk (Zion Williamson assists)NO 112 – 109 MIN · NO 47% → 62% +16NO 47% → 62%+16 pts
- Q43:08Anthony Edwards makes 24-foot three point jumper (Mike Conley assists)NO 112 – 112 MIN · MIN 37% → 61% +24MIN 37% → 61%+24 pts
- Q42:16Bruce Brown makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jose Alvarado assists)NO 115 – 113 MIN · NO 32% → 60% +28NO 32% → 60%+28 pts
- Q41:31Kelly Olynyk makes driving layup (Zion Williamson assists)NO 117 – 115 MIN · NO 43% → 65% +23NO 43% → 65%+23 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 85%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -13.5
- ML NO +550 / MIN -900
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 86%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -14
- MIN 90%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.0 pts
- MIN: Elo 90.4%, market 85.4%
- Fair odds
- MIN -585
- NO +585 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 107.0 – 120.5 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1351 | 1648 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −21 | +34 | NO: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +389 Elo | MIN 90.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 85.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 85.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 85.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30110.4 | Points scored | 113.417th of 30 |
| 26th of 30119.1 | Points allowed | 109.36th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−8.7 | Margin | +4.18th of 30 |
| 25th of 30108.7 | Offense rating | 113.510th of 30 |
| 30th of 30117.2 | Defense rating | 109.46th of 30 |
| 15th of 30101.0 | Pace | 99.222nd of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 30th of 306–28 | Road vs home | 20–1514th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
−21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
+34 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 28–41 | 32–38 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–9 | 20–31 |
| Underdog | 21–32 | 12–7 |
| Overs–unders | 38–31 | 39–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 2–3 MIN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.