New Orleans Pelicans at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- CJ McCollumPoints26
- CJ McCollumAssists9
- Karlo MatkovicRebounds11
Spurs- Devin VassellPoints22
- Stephon CastleAssists7
- Sandro MamukelashviliRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–119
- Q40.2Bruce Brown offensive rebound115–119
- Q40.2Trey Murphy III misses 33-foot three point jumper115–119
- Q44.1Jose Alvarado enters the game for Karlo Matkovic115–119
- Q44.1Pelicans Full timeout115–119
- Q44.1Kelly Olynyk defensive rebound115–119
- Q46.1Stephon Castle misses free throw 2 of 2115–119
- Q46.1Karlo Matkovic enters the game for Jose Alvarado115–119
- Q46.1Stephon Castle makes free throw 1 of 2115–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q33:59Keldon Johnson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jeremy Sochan assists)NO 79 – 79 SA · SA 40% → 51% +11SA 40% → 51%+11 pts
- Q49:45Harrison Barnes makes 26-foot three point jumper (Sandro Mamukelashvili assists)NO 90 – 98 SA · SA 72% → 83% +10SA 72% → 83%+10 pts
- Q42:42Bruce Brown makes 1-foot two point shotNO 109 – 111 SA · NO 19% → 33% +14NO 19% → 33%+14 pts
- Q42:09Karlo Matkovic makes 1-foot layup (Bruce Brown assists)NO 111 – 113 SA · NO 16% → 31% +15NO 16% → 31%+15 pts
- Q41:03Devin Vassell makes 26-foot three pointerNO 111 – 116 SA · SA 76% → 96% +20SA 76% → 96%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- SA -0.5
- ML NO -105 / SA -115
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -1
- SA 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.6 pts
- SA: Elo 53.7%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- SA -104
- NO +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 117.5 – 118.0 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1372 | 1402 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | SA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −46 | −46 | NO: Weaker than its recent lineups · SA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SA +26 Elo | SA 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 51.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30110.8 | Points scored | 114.215th of 30 |
| 26th of 30119.0 | Points allowed | 116.523rd of 30 |
| 29th of 30−8.2 | Margin | −2.420th of 30 |
| 25th of 30109.0 | Offense rating | 112.415th of 30 |
| 30th of 30117.1 | Defense rating | 114.725th of 30 |
| 14th of 30101.0 | Pace | 101.310th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 30th of 306–27 | Road vs home | 16–1619th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
−46 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
−46 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 28–39 | 28–37 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 7–9 | 10–12 |
| Underdog | 21–30 | 18–25 |
| Overs–unders | 38–29 | 38–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 5–2 SA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.