New Orleans Pelicans at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Zion WilliamsonPoints20
- Jose AlvaradoAssists7
- Karlo MatkovicRebounds7
Rockets- Dillon BrooksPoints27
- Amen ThompsonAssists11
- Amen ThompsonRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–146
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–146
- Q419.2Jeremiah Robinson-Earl makes 22-foot three point jumper (Yves Missi assists)117–146
- Q423.2Yves Missi offensive rebound114–146
- Q425.0Jeremiah Robinson-Earl misses 7-foot two point shot114–146
- Q437.0Jae'Sean Tate makes free throw 2 of 2114–146
- Q437.0Jae'Sean Tate makes free throw 1 of 2114–145
- Q437.0Jamal Cain personal foul114–144
- Q451.0Jordan Hawkins makes 27-foot three point shot114–144
- Q41:03Jamal Cain defensive rebound111–144
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:48Dillon Brooks makes 26-foot three point jumper (Amen Thompson assists)NO 1 – 5 HOU · HOU 72% → 77% +5HOU 72% → 77%+5 pts
- Q19:02Dillon Brooks makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tari Eason assists)NO 3 – 10 HOU · HOU 77% → 82% +5HOU 77% → 82%+5 pts
- Q17:46Jalen Green makes 28-foot three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)NO 7 – 13 HOU · HOU 76% → 80% +5HOU 76% → 80%+5 pts
- Q149.0Jordan Hawkins makes 25-foot three point shot (Jose Alvarado assists)NO 28 – 35 HOU · NO 14% → 18% +4NO 14% → 18%+4 pts
- Q23:05Jose Alvarado makes 26-foot running pullup jump shotNO 53 – 62 HOU · NO 11% → 15% +4NO 11% → 15%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -6.5
- ML NO +230 / HOU -285
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -5
- HOU 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.2 pts
- HOU: Elo 69.8%, market 71.0%
- Fair odds
- HOU -244
- NO +244 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 111.0 – 117.5 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1390 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +26 | +2 | NO: Stronger than its recent lineups · HOU: Missing Fred VanVleet −7 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +145 Elo | HOU 69.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 67.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 68.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 71.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30110.8 | Points scored | 112.618th of 30 |
| 26th of 30118.8 | Points allowed | 109.26th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−8.0 | Margin | +3.47th of 30 |
| 25th of 30108.8 | Offense rating | 111.018th of 30 |
| 29th of 30116.6 | Defense rating | 107.72nd of 30 |
| 12th of 30101.2 | Pace | 100.916th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 28th of 306–26 | Road vs home | 20–109th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
+26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
+2 Elo- Fred VanVleet right ankle injury−7 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 26–37 | 34–29 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–9 | 23–20 |
| Underdog | 19–28 | 11–9 |
| Overs–unders | 36–27 | 32–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 2–5 HOU in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.