Houston Rockets at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Alperen SengunPoints25
- Alperen SengunAssists7
- Tari EasonRebounds14
Pacers- Tyrese HaliburtonPoints28
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists15
- Andrew NembhardRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game102–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter102–115
- Q44.1shot clock turnover102–115
- Q427.0Tony Bradley defensive rebound102–115
- Q430.0Nate Williams misses 14-foot two point shot102–115
- Q439.1Ben Sheppard makes alley oop layup (Jarace Walker assists)102–115
- Q452.1Ben Sheppard defensive rebound102–113
- Q454.1Nate Williams misses free throw 2 of 2102–113
- Q454.1Tony Bradley enters the game for Thomas Bryant102–113
- Q454.1Nate Williams makes free throw 1 of 2102–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q411:09Tari Eason makes 23-foot three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)HOU 88 – 90 IND · HOU 24% → 35% +11HOU 24% → 35%+11 pts
- Q410:52Ben Sheppard makes 25-foot three point jumper (Pascal Siakam assists)HOU 88 – 93 IND · IND 65% → 76% +11IND 65% → 76%+11 pts
- Q49:17Dillon Brooks makes 25-foot three point shot (Amen Thompson assists)HOU 94 – 95 IND · HOU 27% → 40% +13HOU 27% → 40%+13 pts
- Q48:27Aaron Nesmith makes 11-foot driving floating jump shot (Tyrese Haliburton assists)HOU 96 – 97 IND · IND 51% → 60% +10IND 51% → 60%+10 pts
- Q46:55Myles Turner makes 24-foot three point jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)HOU 96 – 101 IND · IND 66% → 79% +14IND 66% → 79%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pacers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- IND -4.5
- ML HOU +160 / IND -190
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -6
- IND 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- +9.7 pts
- IND: Elo 72.7%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- IND -170
- HOU +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 113.0 – 117.5 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1570 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | HOU on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −11 | +21 | HOU: Missing Fred VanVleet −8 · IND: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | HOU crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | IND +170 Elo | IND 72.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 68.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 69.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | IND 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30112.9 | Points scored | 116.69th of 30 |
| 6th of 30109.3 | Points allowed | 115.321st of 30 |
| 7th of 30+3.6 | Margin | +1.315th of 30 |
| 17th of 30111.2 | Offense rating | 114.67th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30107.6 | Defense rating | 113.323rd of 30 |
| 14th of 30101.0 | Pace | 101.112th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–411th of 30 |
| 7th of 3017–13 | Road vs home | 18–98th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
−11 Elo- Fred VanVleet right ankle injury−8 Elo
Pacers
+21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 33–28 | 29–30 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 22–20 | 17–19 |
| Underdog | 11–8 | 12–11 |
| Overs–unders | 32–29 | 33–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 1–2 IND in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.