New Orleans Pelicans at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Kelly OlynykPoints26
- Zion WilliamsonAssists9
- Kelly OlynykRebounds9
Jazz- Keyonte GeorgePoints28
- Isaiah CollierAssists8
- Oscar TshiebweRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game128–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter128–121
- Q44.1Trey Murphy III makes technical free throw128–121
- Q44.1excess timeout turnover127–121
- Q44.1excess timeout technical foul127–121
- Q44.1Jazz Full timeout127–121
- Q44.1Kelly Olynyk makes free throw 2 of 2127–121
- Q44.1Pelicans offensive team rebound126–121
- Q44.1Kelly Olynyk misses free throw 1 of 2126–121
- Q44.1Johnny Juzang personal take foul126–121
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:11Bruce Brown makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jordan Hawkins assists)NO 99 – 100 UTAH · NO 41% → 56% +14NO 41% → 56%+14 pts
- Q48:28Keyonte George makes 25-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Collier assists)NO 99 – 103 UTAH · UTAH 45% → 60% +15UTAH 45% → 60%+15 pts
- Q47:09Keyonte George makes 26-foot three point jumper (Micah Potter assists)NO 103 – 108 UTAH · UTAH 52% → 67% +16UTAH 52% → 67%+16 pts
- Q46:20CJ McCollum makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kelly Olynyk assists)NO 108 – 108 UTAH · NO 42% → 59% +17NO 42% → 59%+17 pts
- Q45:51CJ McCollum makes 25-foot three pointerNO 111 – 108 UTAH · NO 58% → 74% +16NO 58% → 74%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pelicans 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- NO -7.5
- ML NO -300 / UTAH +250
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -2
- NO 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −13.7 pts
- NO: Elo 58.7%, market 72.4%
- Fair odds
- NO -263
- UTAH +263 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 119.5 – 112.0 UTAH
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1397 | 1406 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +7 | −99 | NO: Stronger than its recent lineups · UTAH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NO +61 Elo | NO 58.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 68.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NO 67.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NO 72.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30110.7 | Points scored | 112.319th of 30 |
| 26th of 30118.7 | Points allowed | 119.327th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−8.0 | Margin | −7.027th of 30 |
| 25th of 30108.6 | Offense rating | 110.122nd of 30 |
| 28th of 30116.5 | Defense rating | 117.030th of 30 |
| 11th of 30101.2 | Pace | 101.210th of 30 |
| 15th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 30th of 305–25 | Road vs home | 8–2229th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
+7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Jazz
−99 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 26–34 | 30–28 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–8 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 19–26 | 30–27 |
| Overs–unders | 34–26 | 35–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 4–2 UTAH in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.