Houston Rockets at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Alperen SengunPoints22
- Alperen SengunAssists8
- Amen ThompsonRebounds11
Pelicans- Trey Murphy IIIPoints26
- Jose AlvaradoAssists4
- Zion WilliamsonRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–97
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–97
- Q422.0Rockets defensive team rebound109–97
- Q425.0Trey Murphy III misses 31-foot three point jumper109–97
- Q430.1Tari Eason makes two point shot109–97
- Q431.1Tari Eason offensive rebound107–97
- Q434.2Dillon Brooks misses 25-foot three point jumper107–97
- Q456.2Yves Missi makes free throw 2 of 2107–97
- Q456.2Pelicans offensive team rebound107–96
- Q456.2Yves Missi misses free throw 1 of 2107–96
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q24:30Tari Eason makes 23-foot three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)HOU 42 – 48 NO · HOU 33% → 40% +8HOU 33% → 40%+8 pts
- Q22:31CJ McCollum makes 26-foot three pointerHOU 47 – 57 NO · NO 63% → 71% +8NO 63% → 71%+8 pts
- Q22:12Tari Eason makes 22-foot three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)HOU 50 – 57 NO · HOU 29% → 37% +8HOU 29% → 37%+8 pts
- Q311:03Jalen Green makes 24-foot three pointerHOU 61 – 59 NO · HOU 53% → 61% +9HOU 53% → 61%+9 pts
- Q36:31Jordan Hawkins makes 26-foot three point jumper (Bruce Brown assists)HOU 73 – 68 NO · NO 21% → 29% +8NO 21% → 29%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -3.5
- ML HOU -150 / NO +130
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -3
- HOU 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.0 pts
- HOU: Elo 61.9%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- HOU -138
- NO +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 117.5 – 114.0 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1398 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −8 | +11 | HOU: Missing Fred VanVleet −7 · NO: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −24 | NO crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | HOU +85 Elo | HOU 61.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 63.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 62.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30112.7 | Points scored | 111.021st of 30 |
| 6th of 30109.4 | Points allowed | 119.026th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+3.3 | Margin | −8.029th of 30 |
| 18th of 30111.1 | Offense rating | 108.925th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30107.8 | Defense rating | 116.729th of 30 |
| 16th of 30100.9 | Pace | 101.311th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 7th of 3017–14 | Road vs home | 11–1924th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
−8 Elo- Fred VanVleet right ankle sprain−7 Elo
Pelicans
+11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 33–29 | 26–36 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 22–20 | 7–9 |
| Underdog | 11–9 | 19–27 |
| Overs–unders | 32–30 | 36–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 4–2 NO in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.