New Orleans Pelicans at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Zion WilliamsonPoints37
- Zion WilliamsonAssists6
- Trey Murphy IIIRebounds6
Lakers- LeBron JamesPoints34
- Luka DoncicAssists15
- Jaxson HayesRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–136
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–136
- Q417.1Bronny James out of bounds lost ball turnover115–136
- Q429.0Jeremiah Robinson-Earl makes 3-foot dunk (Karlo Matkovic assists)115–136
- Q442.0Dalton Knecht makes 26-foot three pointer113–136
- Q41:03Jordan Hawkins makes 28-foot three point step back jumpshot (Jamal Cain assists)113–133
- Q41:07Jamal Cain offensive rebound110–133
- Q41:10Jordan Hawkins misses running pullup jump shot110–133
- Q41:13Karlo Matkovic defensive rebound110–133
- Q41:17Bronny James misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot110–133
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:28CJ McCollum makes 26-foot running pullup jump shot (Zion Williamson assists)NO 13 – 13 LAL · NO 23% → 28% +5NO 23% → 28%+5 pts
- Q15:08Luka Doncic makes 25-foot three point jumperNO 15 – 19 LAL · LAL 74% → 79% +5LAL 74% → 79%+5 pts
- Q27:26Jordan Hawkins makes 25-foot three pointer (Karlo Matkovic assists)NO 41 – 43 LAL · NO 20% → 26% +6NO 20% → 26%+6 pts
- Q26:51LeBron James makes 27-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)NO 43 – 46 LAL · LAL 69% → 76% +6LAL 69% → 76%+6 pts
- Q25:29LeBron James makes 27-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)NO 43 – 51 LAL · LAL 79% → 85% +5LAL 79% → 85%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -7.5
- ML NO +260 / LAL -330
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 75%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -9.5
- LAL 82%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.3 pts
- LAL: Elo 81.7%, market 73.4%
- Fair odds
- LAL -276
- NO +276 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 110.5 – 118.0 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1403 | 1629 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +16 | +14 | NO: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +260 Elo | LAL 81.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 74.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 75.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 73.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30111.0 | Points scored | 112.717th of 30 |
| 26th of 30118.7 | Points allowed | 111.19th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−7.8 | Margin | +1.614th of 30 |
| 25th of 30108.8 | Offense rating | 113.111th of 30 |
| 28th of 30116.4 | Defense rating | 111.412th of 30 |
| 11th of 30101.3 | Pace | 99.521st of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 30 |
| 28th of 306–25 | Road vs home | 23–73rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
+16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
+14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 26–35 | 34–25 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 7–9 | 18–16 |
| Underdog | 19–26 | 16–9 |
| Overs–unders | 35–26 | 27–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 1–4 LAL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.