Orlando Magic at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints34
- Franz WagnerAssists5
- Paolo BancheroRebounds11
Pelicans- Zion WilliamsonPoints20
- Zion WilliamsonAssists5
- Zion WilliamsonRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–93
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–93
- Q417.1shot clock turnover113–93
- Q439.0Caleb Houstan defensive rebound113–93
- Q442.0Tristan da Silva blocks Antonio Reeves 's 3-foot driving layup113–93
- Q449.2Trevelin Queen out of bounds lost ball turnover113–93
- Q458.1Magic offensive team rebound113–93
- Q41:00Tristan da Silva misses 28-foot three point jumper113–93
- Q41:12Jose Alvarado makes two point shot113–93
- Q41:19(01:19) [Magic] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL REPLAYCENTER)113–91
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:10Paolo Banchero makes 26-foot three pointerORL 15 – 6 NO · ORL 67% → 73% +6ORL 67% → 73%+6 pts
- Q17:14Jordan Hawkins makes 25-foot three pointer (Bruce Brown assists)ORL 17 – 9 NO · NO 23% → 29% +5NO 23% → 29%+5 pts
- Q16:04Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 24-foot three point jumper (Paolo Banchero assists)ORL 22 – 11 NO · ORL 72% → 77% +5ORL 72% → 77%+5 pts
- Q13:19Paolo Banchero makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotORL 29 – 16 NO · ORL 76% → 81% +5ORL 76% → 81%+5 pts
- Q11:43Jeremiah Robinson-Earl makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jose Alvarado assists)ORL 32 – 19 NO · NO 15% → 19% +4NO 15% → 19%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -2.5
- ML ORL -135 / NO +115
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NO -0.5
- ORL 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.7 pts
- ORL: Elo 47.6%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- ORL -124
- NO +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 109.0 – 106.5 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 215.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1420 | 1389 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −10 | +2 | ORL: Missing Cole Anthony −12 · NO: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NO +17 Elo | NO 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 52.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30104.3 | Points scored | 111.022nd of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.1 | Points allowed | 119.126th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−1.8 | Margin | −8.029th of 30 |
| 28th of 30106.2 | Offense rating | 109.125th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30108.1 | Defense rating | 117.030th of 30 |
| 28th of 3097.8 | Pace | 101.212th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 20th of 3012–20 | Road vs home | 12–2124th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
−10 Elo- Cole Anthony left toe−12 Elo
Pelicans
+2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ORL |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 31–35 | 28–38 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 20–17 | 7–9 |
| Underdog | 11–18 | 21–29 |
| Overs–unders | 26–40 | 38–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 3–0 NO in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.