Toronto Raptors at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- RJ BarrettPoints21
- RJ BarrettAssists9
- Scottie BarnesRebounds13
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints41
- Paolo BancheroAssists8
- Paolo BancheroRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–113
- Q40.1Orlando Robinson vs. Wendell Carter Jr.114–113
- Q40.1(00:00.5) [Raptors] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL OVERTURNED)114–113
- Q40.1Wendell Carter Jr. enters the game for Jonathan Isaac114–113
- Q40.1Magic Full timeout114–113
- Q40.1(00:00.5) [Raptors] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)114–113
- Q40.1Ja'Kobe Walter makes 24-foot three pointer (Jamal Shead assists)114–113
- Q44.1Raptors Full timeout111–113
- Q44.1Paolo Banchero makes free throw 2 of 2111–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:01Paolo Banchero makes driving layupTOR 108 – 108 ORL · ORL 26% → 53% +27ORL 26% → 53%+27 pts
- Q442.0A.J. Lawson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jamal Shead assists)TOR 111 – 108 ORL · TOR 48% → 89% +41TOR 48% → 89%+41 pts
- Q433.1Paolo Banchero makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshotTOR 111 – 111 ORL · ORL 8% → 52% +44ORL 8% → 52%+44 pts
- Q44.1Paolo Banchero makes free throw 1 of 2TOR 111 – 112 ORL · ORL 51% → 92% +41ORL 51% → 92%+41 pts
- Q40.1Ja'Kobe Walter makes 24-foot three pointer (Jamal Shead assists)TOR 114 – 113 ORL · TOR 0% → 100% +100TOR 0% → 100%+100 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -6.5
- ML TOR +190 / ORL -230
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -0.5
- ORL 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −15.7 pts
- ORL: Elo 51.2%, market 66.9%
- Fair odds
- ORL -202
- TOR +202 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 99.0 – 105.5 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 204.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1400 | 1429 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +53 | −4 | TOR: Missing Brandon Ingram −14 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · ORL: Missing Cole Anthony −8 (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +8 Elo | ORL 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 62.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 61.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 66.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30110.3 | Points scored | 104.030th of 30 |
| 24th of 30116.2 | Points allowed | 105.71st of 30 |
| 25th of 30−5.8 | Margin | −1.718th of 30 |
| 26th of 30108.4 | Offense rating | 106.028th of 30 |
| 24th of 30114.1 | Defense rating | 107.83rd of 30 |
| 17th of 30100.9 | Pace | 97.828th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 27th of 306–23 | Road vs home | 18–1415th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
+53 Elo- Brandon Ingram sprained left ankle−14 Elo
Magic
−4 Elo- Cole Anthony toe injury−8 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 36–25 | 30–32 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 20–15 |
| Underdog | 33–22 | 10–17 |
| Overs–unders | 31–30 | 23–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 2–4 ORL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.