Toronto Raptors at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Immanuel QuickleyPoints24
- RJ BarrettAssists5
- Jakob PoeltlRebounds11
Magic- Franz WagnerPoints25
- Paolo BancheroAssists5
- Wendell Carter Jr.Rebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–102
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–102
- Q40.2Jonathan Mogbo vs. Cory Joseph104–102
- Q40.2Jonathan Isaac enters the game for Jett Howard104–102
- Q40.2Jonathan Mogbo defensive rebound104–102
- Q42.0Franz Wagner misses layup104–102
- Q44.1Jett Howard enters the game for Wendell Carter Jr.104–102
- Q44.1Magic Full timeout104–102
- Q44.1RJ Barrett out of bounds bad pass turnover104–102
- Q45.1Paolo Banchero makes 2-foot driving dunk104–102
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q22:59RJ Barrett makes 25-foot three point jumper (Immanuel Quickley assists)TOR 45 – 39 ORL · TOR 43% → 51% +8TOR 43% → 51%+8 pts
- Q311:06RJ Barrett makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ja'Kobe Walter assists)TOR 51 – 49 ORL · TOR 33% → 42% +9TOR 33% → 42%+9 pts
- Q31:40Jett Howard makes 23-foot three point jumper (Anthony Black assists)TOR 69 – 71 ORL · ORL 57% → 68% +11ORL 57% → 68%+11 pts
- Q31:14Immanuel Quickley makes 22-foot three point shot (Jamal Shead assists)TOR 73 – 71 ORL · TOR 35% → 47% +12TOR 35% → 47%+12 pts
- Q341.1Immanuel Quickley makes 3-foot two point shotTOR 75 – 71 ORL · TOR 47% → 55% +8TOR 47% → 55%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -6.5
- ML TOR +220 / ORL -270
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -1.5
- ORL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −13.1 pts
- ORL: Elo 56.9%, market 70.0%
- Fair odds
- ORL -234
- TOR +234 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 101.5 – 108.0 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 209.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1394 | 1435 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +45 | +5 | TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups · ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | TOR crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | ORL +48 Elo | ORL 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 66.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 65.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 70.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30110.4 | Points scored | 104.130th of 30 |
| 24th of 30116.4 | Points allowed | 105.81st of 30 |
| 25th of 30−6.0 | Margin | −1.718th of 30 |
| 26th of 30108.3 | Offense rating | 106.028th of 30 |
| 24th of 30114.2 | Defense rating | 107.73rd of 30 |
| 14th of 30101.1 | Pace | 97.828th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 28th of 305–23 | Road vs home | 18–1314th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
+45 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
+5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 35–25 | 30–31 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 3–3 | 20–14 |
| Underdog | 32–22 | 10–17 |
| Overs–unders | 31–29 | 23–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 1–4 ORL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.