Chicago Bulls at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Coby WhitePoints44
- Josh GiddeyAssists9
- Josh GiddeyRebounds13
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints20
- Franz WagnerAssists6
- Paolo BancheroRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game125–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter125–123
- Q40.0(00:00) [Bulls] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)125–123
- Q42.1Wendell Carter Jr. offensive rebound125–123
- Q42.1Paolo Banchero misses 26-foot three point jumper125–123
- Q412.0Coby White lost ball turnover (Wendell Carter Jr. steals)125–123
- Q414.0Coby White vs. Wendell Carter Jr. (Anthony Black gains possession)125–123
- Q426.1Wendell Carter Jr. personal foul125–123
- Q439.1Franz Wagner out of bounds lost ball turnover125–123
- Q439.1Anthony Black enters the game for Cole Anthony125–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:42Tre Jones makes 23-foot three point shot (Josh Giddey assists)CHI 116 – 118 ORL · CHI 15% → 30% +15CHI 15% → 30%+15 pts
- Q44:19Caleb Houstan makes 25-foot three point jumper (Franz Wagner assists)CHI 116 – 121 ORL · ORL 71% → 86% +15ORL 71% → 86%+15 pts
- Q42:42Coby White makes 1-foot dunk (Matas Buzelis assists)CHI 120 – 121 ORL · CHI 21% → 35% +15CHI 21% → 35%+15 pts
- Q42:18Coby White makes 29-foot three point jumper (Tre Jones assists)CHI 123 – 121 ORL · CHI 35% → 63% +28CHI 35% → 63%+28 pts
- Q41:28Coby White makes 2-foot two point shotCHI 125 – 123 ORL · CHI 46% → 69% +23CHI 46% → 69%+23 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -8.5
- ML CHI +270 / ORL -340
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -3.5
- ORL 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.2 pts
- ORL: Elo 62.9%, market 74.1%
- Fair odds
- ORL -286
- CHI +286 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 107.0 – 115.5 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1404 | 1425 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −16 | +7 | CHI: Weaker than its recent lineups · ORL: Missing Jonathan Isaac −4 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | CHI crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | ORL +92 Elo | ORL 62.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 73.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 72.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 74.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30116.5 | Points scored | 104.230th of 30 |
| 30th of 30120.7 | Points allowed | 105.91st of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−4.3 | Margin | −1.718th of 30 |
| 20th of 30110.9 | Offense rating | 106.128th of 30 |
| 26th of 30115.0 | Defense rating | 107.83rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30104.5 | Pace | 97.828th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–616th of 30 |
| 16th of 3013–16 | Road vs home | 18–1518th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
−16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
+7 Elo- Jonathan Isaac illness−4 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 29–32 | 30–33 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–8 | 20–16 |
| Underdog | 23–24 | 10–17 |
| Overs–unders | 31–31 | 24–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 1–5 ORL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.