Orlando Magic at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints29
- Cole AnthonyAssists9
- Franz WagnerRebounds7
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints37
- Giannis AntetokounmpoAssists4
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–109
- Q40.1Anthony Black defensive rebound111–109
- Q42.0Damian Lillard misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot111–109
- Q46.1Anthony Black enters the game for Cole Anthony111–109
- Q46.1AJ Green enters the game for Kyle Kuzma111–109
- Q46.1Cole Anthony lost ball turnover (Taurean Prince steals)111–109
- Q415.1Cole Anthony enters the game for Anthony Black111–109
- Q415.1Giannis Antetokounmpo makes free throw 1 of 1111–109
- Q415.1Brook Lopez enters the game for AJ Green111–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:48Taurean Prince makes 23-foot three point jumper (AJ Green assists)ORL 97 – 92 MIL · MIL 19% → 32% +13MIL 19% → 32%+13 pts
- Q46:22Taurean Prince makes 25-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)ORL 97 – 95 MIL · MIL 31% → 47% +16MIL 31% → 47%+16 pts
- Q45:20Paolo Banchero makes 27-foot three pointerORL 102 – 95 MIL · ORL 67% → 82% +15ORL 67% → 82%+15 pts
- Q42:39Cole Anthony makes 24-foot three point jumper (Franz Wagner assists)ORL 107 – 99 MIL · ORL 84% → 95% +11ORL 84% → 95%+11 pts
- Q41:09Damian Lillard makes 22-foot three point step back jumpshot (Taurean Prince assists)ORL 109 – 106 MIL · MIL 3% → 18% +15MIL 3% → 18%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bucks 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- MIL -6.5
- ML ORL +235 / MIL -290
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -7.5
- MIL 77%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.8 pts
- MIL: Elo 77.1%, market 71.4%
- Fair odds
- MIL -249
- ORL +249 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 105.0 – 111.5 MIL
- Posted spread, posted total 216.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1418 | 1583 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +8 | +19 | ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +211 Elo | MIL 77.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 69.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 70.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 71.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30104.5 | Points scored | 114.612th of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.2 | Points allowed | 112.012th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−1.7 | Margin | +2.69th of 30 |
| 28th of 30106.3 | Offense rating | 113.012th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30108.0 | Defense rating | 110.410th of 30 |
| 28th of 3098.0 | Pace | 101.311th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 20th of 3011–19 | Road vs home | 21–95th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
+8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
+19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ORL |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 30–34 | 31–31 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 20–17 | 22–22 |
| Underdog | 10–17 | 9–9 |
| Overs–unders | 25–39 | 31–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 2–5 MIL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.