Milwaukee Bucks at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints26
- Giannis AntetokounmpoAssists10
- Brook LopezRebounds13
Hawks- Trae YoungPoints28
- Trae YoungAssists13
- Dyson DanielsRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game127–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter127–121
- Q414.1Damian Lillard makes technical free throw127–121
- Q414.1excess timeout technical foul126–121
- Q414.1excess timeout turnover126–121
- Q414.1Trae Young enters the game for Mouhamed Gueye126–121
- Q414.1Hawks Full timeout126–121
- Q414.1Dyson Daniels defensive rebound126–121
- Q415.0Giannis Antetokounmpo misses free throw 2 of 2126–121
- Q415.0Mouhamed Gueye enters the game for Trae Young126–121
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:50Terance Mann makes 23-foot three point jumper (Georges Niang assists)MIL 97 – 102 ATL · ATL 52% → 65% +13ATL 52% → 65%+13 pts
- Q46:47Mouhamed Gueye makes 22-foot three point jumper (Terance Mann assists)MIL 108 – 109 ATL · ATL 33% → 49% +16ATL 33% → 49%+16 pts
- Q43:35Kyle Kuzma makes 26-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)MIL 119 – 113 ATL · MIL 75% → 90% +14MIL 75% → 90%+14 pts
- Q41:02Caris LeVert makes 23-foot three point jumper (Trae Young assists)MIL 121 – 121 ATL · ATL 13% → 48% +35ATL 13% → 48%+35 pts
- Q450.0Brook Lopez makes 1-foot dunk (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)MIL 123 – 121 ATL · MIL 52% → 80% +28MIL 52% → 80%+28 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bucks 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- MIL -5.5
- ML MIL -220 / ATL +180
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -4.5
- MIL 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- MIL: Elo 67.1%, market 65.8%
- Fair odds
- MIL -192
- ATL +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 125.0 – 119.5 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 244.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1568 | 1441 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | ATL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +5 | +12 | MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups · ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −12 | MIL crossed 1 time zone and ATL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIL +124 Elo | MIL 67.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 65.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 65.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 65.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30114.1 | Points scored | 116.97th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.0 | Points allowed | 119.627th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+2.1 | Margin | −2.821st of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.6 | Offense rating | 110.620th of 30 |
| 11th of 30110.5 | Defense rating | 113.322nd of 30 |
| 13th of 30101.0 | Pace | 104.92nd of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 15th of 3013–16 | Road vs home | 13–1522nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
+5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
+12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 29–31 | 29–32 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 20–22 | 7–15 |
| Underdog | 9–9 | 22–17 |
| Overs–unders | 29–31 | 36–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 3–3 ATL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.