Dallas Mavericks at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Klay ThompsonPoints28
- Brandon WilliamsAssists8
- Naji MarshallRebounds11
Bucks- Damian LillardPoints34
- Kevin Porter Jr.Assists14
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–137
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–137
- Q421.1Brandon Williams bad pass (Jamaree Bouyea steals)107–137
- Q425.1Kessler Edwards defensive rebound107–137
- Q428.1Stanley Umude misses 23-foot three point shot107–137
- Q433.2Andre Jackson Jr. defensive rebound107–137
- Q435.1Naji Marshall misses driving floating jump shot107–137
- Q442.1Andre Jackson Jr. makes 7-foot dunk (Chris Livingston assists)107–137
- Q447.0Chris Livingston defensive rebound107–135
- Q448.2Olivier-Maxence Prosper misses 10-foot two point shot107–135
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:27Damian Lillard makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotDAL 8 – 9 MIL · MIL 79% → 84% +4MIL 79% → 84%+4 pts
- Q18:41Damian Lillard makes 28-foot three point shotDAL 8 – 12 MIL · MIL 83% → 87% +4MIL 83% → 87%+4 pts
- Q14:58Klay Thompson makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (Kessler Edwards assists)DAL 19 – 18 MIL · DAL 16% → 21% +4DAL 16% → 21%+4 pts
- Q13:24Klay Thompson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kessler Edwards assists)DAL 22 – 25 MIL · DAL 11% → 15% +4DAL 11% → 15%+4 pts
- Q13:12Damian Lillard makes 29-foot three point step back jumpshotDAL 22 – 28 MIL · MIL 85% → 89% +4MIL 85% → 89%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bucks 83%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- MIL -12.5
- ML DAL +450 / MIL -700
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -6
- MIL 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.9 pts
- MIL: Elo 72.9%, market 82.8%
- Fair odds
- MIL -481
- DAL +481 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 106.5 – 119.0 MIL
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1572 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | MIL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −107 | +19 | DAL: Missing Dante Exum −10, P.J. Washington −3 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +172 Elo | MIL 72.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 76.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 75.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 82.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30114.7 | Points scored | 114.313th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.6 | Points allowed | 112.112th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+1.1 | Margin | +2.29th of 30 |
| 11th of 30113.4 | Offense rating | 112.713th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.3 | Defense rating | 110.511th of 30 |
| 18th of 30100.8 | Pace | 101.212th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 30 |
| 17th of 3013–17 | Road vs home | 20–95th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
−107 Elo- Dante Exum right foot−10 Elo
- P.J. Washington sprained right ankle−3 Elo
Bucks
+19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 32–30 | 30–31 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 14–15 | 21–22 |
| Underdog | 18–15 | 9–9 |
| Overs–unders | 30–32 | 30–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 0–3 MIL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.