LA Clippers at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints29
- James HardenAssists17
- Ivica ZubacRebounds11
Pelicans- CJ McCollumPoints23
- Zion WilliamsonAssists12
- Zion WilliamsonRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–127
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–127
- Q43.1Trey Murphy III makes free throw 2 of 2120–127
- Q43.1Trey Murphy III makes free throw 1 of 2120–126
- Q43.1James Harden personal take foul120–125
- Q49.0Kawhi Leonard makes 1-foot driving dunk120–125
- Q414.0CJ McCollum makes free throw 2 of 2118–125
- Q414.0Bogdan Bogdanovic enters the game for Kris Dunn118–124
- Q414.0CJ McCollum makes free throw 1 of 2118–124
- Q414.0Ivica Zubac personal take foul118–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q33:35Bogdan Bogdanovic makes 25-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)LAC 80 – 82 NO · LAC 45% → 56% +11LAC 45% → 56%+11 pts
- Q32:14CJ McCollum makes 25-foot three point jumper (Yves Missi assists)LAC 83 – 85 NO · NO 34% → 45% +11NO 34% → 45%+11 pts
- Q31:10Trey Murphy III makes 27-foot three point jumper (Zion Williamson assists)LAC 87 – 90 NO · NO 38% → 50% +12NO 38% → 50%+12 pts
- Q350.1Trey Murphy III makes 27-foot three point jumper (Zion Williamson assists)LAC 87 – 93 NO · NO 50% → 62% +12NO 50% → 62%+12 pts
- Q41:15Kawhi Leonard makes two point shot (James Harden assists)LAC 116 – 119 NO · LAC 6% → 19% +13LAC 6% → 19%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -7.5
- ML LAC -295 / NO +240
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -4.5
- LAC 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- LAC: Elo 66.8%, market 71.7%
- Fair odds
- LAC -254
- NO +254 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 115.0 – 107.5 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1377 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +32 | −3 | LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · NO: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | LAC crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | LAC +121 Elo | LAC 66.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 68.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 67.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 71.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30110.8 | Points scored | 110.822nd of 30 |
| 4th of 30108.7 | Points allowed | 119.126th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+2.2 | Margin | −8.329th of 30 |
| 20th of 30111.0 | Offense rating | 108.825th of 30 |
| 4th of 30108.8 | Defense rating | 116.929th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3099.2 | Pace | 101.212th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 18th of 3013–19 | Road vs home | 11–2126th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
+32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
−3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAC |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 34–30 | 27–38 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 19–15 | 7–9 |
| Underdog | 15–15 | 20–29 |
| Overs–unders | 29–35 | 37–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 2–3 NO in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.