Memphis Grizzlies at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Ja MorantPoints32
- Desmond BaneAssists8
- Zach EdeyRebounds12
Pelicans- Trey Murphy IIIPoints27
- Jose AlvaradoAssists11
- Karlo MatkovicRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–104
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–104
- Q40.0Pelicans offensive team rebound107–104
- Q40.0Kelly Olynyk misses 25-foot three point jumper107–104
- Q41.0Jordan Hawkins offensive rebound107–104
- Q45.1Jose Alvarado misses 26-foot three point jumper107–104
- Q46.2Pelicans Full timeout107–104
- Q46.2Bruce Brown enters the game for Karlo Matkovic107–104
- Q46.2Jordan Hawkins enters the game for Yves Missi107–104
- Q46.2Pelicans Full timeout107–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:22Karlo Matkovic makes 9-foot two point shot (Jose Alvarado assists)MEM 91 – 96 NO · NO 56% → 66% +11NO 56% → 66%+11 pts
- Q44:04Ja Morant makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Wells assists)MEM 96 – 96 NO · MEM 38% → 59% +21MEM 38% → 59%+21 pts
- Q43:37Ja Morant makes 17-foot pullup jump shotMEM 98 – 97 NO · MEM 51% → 66% +15MEM 51% → 66%+15 pts
- Q43:07Desmond Bane makes 1-foot two point shotMEM 100 – 97 NO · MEM 66% → 79% +13MEM 66% → 79%+13 pts
- Q41:57Jaylen Wells makes 24-foot three point jumper (Scotty Pippen Jr. assists)MEM 104 – 98 NO · MEM 83% → 96% +13MEM 83% → 96%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Grizzlies 79%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- MEM -9.5
- ML MEM -460 / NO +350
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 79%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -8.5
- MEM 80%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- MEM: Elo 80.0%, market 78.7%
- Fair odds
- MEM -370
- NO +370 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 124.5 – 115.0 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 239.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1378 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | NO on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +8 | −78 | MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups · NO: Missing CJ McCollum −20 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MEM +241 Elo | MEM 80.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 79.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 79.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MEM 78.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30122.9 | Points scored | 110.921st of 30 |
| 25th of 30116.9 | Points allowed | 119.326th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+6.0 | Margin | −8.429th of 30 |
| 6th of 30115.5 | Offense rating | 108.925th of 30 |
| 9th of 30109.8 | Defense rating | 117.130th of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.3 | Pace | 101.311th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 8th of 3017–14 | Road vs home | 11–2024th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
+8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
−78 Elo- CJ McCollum rest−20 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MEM |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 36–27 | 26–38 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 26–16 | 7–9 |
| Underdog | 10–11 | 19–29 |
| Overs–unders | 39–24 | 37–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MEM 5–2 NO in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.