Memphis Grizzlies at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Ja MorantPoints31
- Ja MorantAssists8
- Desmond BaneRebounds16
Mavericks- Brandon WilliamsPoints31
- Brandon WilliamsAssists6
- Naji MarshallRebounds17
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–111
- Q421.0Vince Williams Jr. defensive rebound122–111
- Q422.0Brandon Clarke blocks Naji Marshall 's 5-foot driving layup122–111
- Q429.0Ja Morant makes 25-foot three pointer122–111
- Q451.0Brandon Clarke defensive rebound119–111
- Q454.1Brandon Williams misses 27-foot three point jumper119–111
- Q41:01Ja Morant makes 6-foot pullup jump shot119–111
- Q41:24Vince Williams Jr. defensive rebound117–111
- Q41:26Naji Marshall misses 26-foot three point jumper117–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q34:12Naji Marshall makes driving layupMEM 79 – 81 DAL · DAL 26% → 39% +13DAL 26% → 39%+13 pts
- Q410:19Klay Thompson makes 29-foot three point jumper (Max Christie assists)MEM 94 – 97 DAL · DAL 36% → 49% +13DAL 36% → 49%+13 pts
- Q48:00Klay Thompson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Naji Marshall assists)MEM 100 – 103 DAL · DAL 37% → 53% +15DAL 37% → 53%+15 pts
- Q43:58Desmond Bane makes 8-foot two point shot (Ja Morant assists)MEM 110 – 108 DAL · MEM 59% → 72% +13MEM 59% → 72%+13 pts
- Q42:59Desmond Bane makes 29-foot three point jumper (Ja Morant assists)MEM 113 – 108 DAL · MEM 73% → 89% +16MEM 73% → 89%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Grizzlies 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- MEM -9.5
- ML MEM -450 / DAL +340
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -3.5
- MEM 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −15.4 pts
- MEM: Elo 62.8%, market 78.3%
- Fair odds
- MEM -360
- DAL +360 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 124.0 – 114.5 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 238.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +2 | −116 | MEM: Usual rotation · DAL: Missing P.J. Washington −3 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MEM +91 Elo | MEM 62.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 71.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 71.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MEM 78.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 30123.0 | Points scored | 114.613th of 30 |
| 25th of 30117.0 | Points allowed | 114.016th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+5.9 | Margin | +0.616th of 30 |
| 6th of 30115.5 | Offense rating | 113.111th of 30 |
| 9th of 30109.9 | Defense rating | 112.514th of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.2 | Pace | 100.916th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–616th of 30 |
| 10th of 3016–14 | Road vs home | 19–1312th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
+2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
−116 Elo- P.J. Washington right ankle sprain−3 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MEM |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 35–27 | 32–31 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 25–16 | 14–15 |
| Underdog | 10–11 | 18–16 |
| Overs–unders | 39–23 | 31–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MEM 3–3 DAL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.