Sacramento Kings at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- DeMar DeRozanPoints31
- DeMar DeRozanAssists10
- Jonas ValanciunasRebounds17
Clippers- James HardenPoints29
- James HardenAssists11
- Ivica ZubacRebounds14
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game110–111
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime110–111
- OT0.0(00:00) [Kings] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)110–111
- OT0.0Kawhi Leonard makes two point shot110–111
- OT21.1Jake LaRavia kicked ball violation110–109
- OT21.1Keon Ellis enters the game for DeMar DeRozan110–109
- OT21.1Bogdan Bogdanovic enters the game for Kris Dunn110–109
- OT21.1Clippers Full timeout110–109
- OT21.1DeMar DeRozan makes free throw 2 of 2110–109
- OT21.1DeMar DeRozan makes free throw 1 of 2109–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q411.2James Harden makes 6-foot driving floating jump shotSAC 97 – 97 LAC · LAC 5% → 51% +46LAC 5% → 51%+46 pts
- OT1:34Derrick Jones Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (James Harden assists)SAC 104 – 107 LAC · LAC 53% → 83% +30LAC 53% → 83%+30 pts
- OT40.0DeMar DeRozan makes 23-foot jumper (Jake LaRavia assists)SAC 108 – 107 LAC · SAC 31% → 65% +34SAC 31% → 65%+34 pts
- OT29.1James Harden makes 3-foot driving floating jump shotSAC 108 – 109 LAC · LAC 32% → 71% +40LAC 32% → 71%+40 pts
- OT0.0Kawhi Leonard makes two point shotSAC 110 – 111 LAC · LAC 0% → 100% +100LAC 0% → 100%+100 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -5.5
- ML SAC +200 / LAC -240
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -3
- LAC 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.2 pts
- LAC: Elo 62.7%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- LAC -212
- SAC +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 105.0 – 110.5 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 215.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −40 | +29 | SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +90 Elo | LAC 62.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 65.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 65.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30117.0 | Points scored | 110.821st of 30 |
| 19th of 30115.0 | Points allowed | 108.64th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+2.0 | Margin | +2.210th of 30 |
| 8th of 30114.6 | Offense rating | 110.920th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.6 | Defense rating | 108.74th of 30 |
| 18th of 30100.9 | Pace | 99.421st of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–615th of 30 |
| 11th of 3017–15 | Road vs home | 21–107th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
−40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
+29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SAC |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 27–35 | 34–29 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 20–26 | 19–14 |
| Underdog | 7–9 | 15–15 |
| Overs–unders | 33–29 | 28–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SAC 2–4 LAC in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.